NBA games

NY @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
105–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY20232933105
SA29381637120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home SA
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 35 32 9 2
OG Anunoby S 37 14 5 1
Mikal Bridges S 32 14 5 7
Mitchell Robinson 17 13 11 0
Miles McBride S 31 11 3 5
Cameron Payne 17 11 0 4
Precious Achiuwa 7 4 2 0
Tyler Kolek 2 2 0 1
Landry Shamet 21 2 2 0
Josh Hart S 35 2 7 7
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Sandro Mamukelashvili 19 34 9 3
Stephon Castle S 27 22 3 3
Chris Paul S 31 12 6 9
Harrison Barnes S 20 11 4 1
Devin Vassell S 33 10 4 3
Jeremy Sochan S 38 10 6 3
Blake Wesley 16 6 2 3
Keldon Johnson 26 6 10 1
Julian Champagnie 20 5 4 2
Bismack Biyombo 10 4 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point shot (Josh Hart assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
14%
2 Mikal Bridges NY
12%
3 Devin Vassell SA
11%
4 OG Anunoby NY
10%
5 Stephon Castle SA
10%
6 Bismack Biyombo SA
9%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
9%
8 Josh Hart NY
9%
9 Miles McBride NY
8%
10 Chris Paul SA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
30%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 22.9 10.5 3.3
2 Stephon Castle SA 22.2 4.4 4.3
3 OG Anunoby NY 20.7 6.0 3.7
4 Mikal Bridges NY 20.6 4.1 5.2
5 Devin Vassell SA 20.1 5.6 3.4
6 Keldon Johnson SA 14.9 5.0 2.0
7 Josh Hart NY 13.6 9.8 5.8
8 Miles McBride NY 12.5 3.4 3.8
9 Harrison Barnes SA 12.2 2.9 1.5
10 Jeremy Sochan SA 12.0 5.1 2.0
11 Chris Paul SA 8.3 2.6 5.8
12 Julian Champagnie SA 7.4 3.1 1.6
13 Landry Shamet NY 6.8 2.0 0.9
14 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.1 5.3 0.8
15 Cameron Payne NY 6.0 1.9 2.7
16 Precious Achiuwa NY 5.8 4.7 1.0
17 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 5.4 2.7 0.8
18 Bismack Biyombo SA 5.4 4.8 1.3
19 Blake Wesley SA 3.7 1.3 1.6
20 Anton Watson NY 3.5 1.6 1.1
21 Tyler Kolek NY 3.5 1.3 1.0
22 Delon Wright NY 3.2 1.4 1.5
23 Jordan McLaughlin SA 1.7 0.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.