NBA games

PHI @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
100–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI26301826100
OKC42283330133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home OKC
13% 87%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Quentin Grimes S 32 28 2 5
Justin Edwards S 30 19 2 2
Chuma Okeke 37 14 15 2
Guerschon Yabusele S 20 11 4 2
Alex Reese 24 11 5 0
Jared Butler S 24 7 2 4
Jalen Hood-Schifino 28 6 1 5
Ricky Council IV 24 4 4 3
Oshae Brissett S 20 0 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Wiggins S 29 26 4 6
Isaiah Joe S 29 21 3 5
Jaylin Williams S 38 19 17 11
Chet Holmgren S 23 19 7 1
Branden Carlson 23 16 6 2
Kenrich Williams 24 13 5 1
Dillon Jones S 36 11 5 5
Adam Flagler 23 5 4 4
Alex Ducas 14 3 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Joe · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Isaiah Joe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dillon Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
4 Quentin Grimes PHI
10%
5 Justin Edwards PHI
8%
6 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
7 Kenrich Williams OKC
7%
8 Lonnie Walker IV PHI
7%
9 Jared Butler PHI
7%
10 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
42%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Quentin Grimes PHI 24.3 5.2 4.5
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 19.9 3.1 5.6
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 19.1 4.2 1.9
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.9 9.1 2.4
5 Oshae Brissett PHI 13.6 4.5 1.5
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC 13.2 4.7 2.4
7 Jared Butler PHI 10.9 3.1 4.7
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.6 4.2 1.7
9 Justin Edwards PHI 10.4 3.2 1.8
10 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 9.1 5.2 1.9
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.9 3.0 1.9
12 Alex Caruso OKC 8.6 3.1 2.1
13 Lonnie Walker IV PHI 8.2 2.7 1.6
14 Ricky Council IV PHI 8.1 3.0 1.4
15 Jalen Hood-Schifino PHI 6.4 2.2 2.2
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.1 3.5 1.8
17 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.7 4.0 1.8
18 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.8 1.8 0.9
19 Alex Reese PHI 4.2 2.8 0.6
20 Dillon Jones OKC 3.6 1.8 1.1
21 Branden Carlson OKC 3.5 1.3 0.5
22 Adam Flagler OKC 3.4 1.2 0.7
23 Chuma Okeke PHI 2.5 1.5 0.5
24 Alex Ducas OKC 2.5 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.