NBA games

NO @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
119115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO24383423119
MIN30313024115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home MIN
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 30 29 5 8
CJ McCollum S 32 18 6 3
Bruce Brown 31 15 7 6
Kelly Olynyk S 30 13 4 0
Yves Missi S 26 13 7 2
Jordan Hawkins 23 13 6 1
Jose Alvarado S 26 8 3 6
Karlo Matkovic 19 5 1 2
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 22 5 7 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 29 6 4
Julius Randle S 28 17 3 3
Mike Conley S 28 16 2 2
Donte DiVincenzo 24 11 7 1
Rudy Gobert S 31 10 9 1
Jaylen Clark 12 9 2 0
Naz Reid 34 9 7 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 21 9 4 2
Jaden McDaniels S 24 5 0 4
Terrence Shannon Jr. 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Yves Missi · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Yves Missi makes 1-foot dunk (CJ McCollum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
13%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
13%
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN
12%
4 Julius Randle MIN
12%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
6 Yves Missi NO
11%
7 CJ McCollum NO
9%
8 Kelly Olynyk NO
9%
9 Mike Conley MIN
8%
10 Jose Alvarado NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
23%
Layup
49%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 27.3 4.9 5.6
2 Zion Williamson NO 24.8 7.9 5.9
3 Julius Randle MIN 20.7 6.1 5.9
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN 19.5 7.4 3.9
5 CJ McCollum NO 16.8 3.9 4.8
6 Naz Reid MIN 16.2 7.1 3.3
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 15.4 4.0 4.9
8 Kelly Olynyk NO 12.5 6.9 3.6
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.4 10.4 1.7
10 Yves Missi NO 11.2 7.5 1.2
11 Jordan Hawkins NO 10.8 3.2 1.6
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.0 3.7 2.7
13 Jose Alvarado NO 9.5 2.4 4.4
14 Mike Conley MIN 9.5 2.5 3.7
15 Karlo Matkovic NO 8.9 6.8 1.3
16 Bruce Brown NO 7.7 3.6 2.5
17 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 6.7 2.8 1.1
18 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 5.7 2.9 1.0
19 Mo Bamba NO 4.9 4.7 0.6
20 Bones Hyland MIN 4.8 1.2 1.8
21 Antonio Reeves NO 4.6 1.7 0.9
22 Luka Garza MIN 4.3 1.6 0.8
23 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.1 1.4 1.0
24 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.4 1.2 1.7
25 Keion Brooks Jr. NO 2.4 1.4 0.5
26 Josh Minott MIN 2.2 1.3 0.6
27 Joe Ingles MIN 2.1 0.7 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.