NBA games

DET @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
116–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET22363028116
MIA32283320113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home MIA
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 36 25 12 11
Malik Beasley 29 16 1 3
Jalen Duren S 28 15 11 1
Ausar Thompson S 29 14 6 1
Tobias Harris S 35 13 5 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 20 10 2 1
Dennis Schroder 19 8 1 3
Ronald Holland II 12 7 1 1
Isaiah Stewart 20 6 6 2
Simone Fontecchio 13 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 37 30 9 8
Tyler Herro S 37 29 4 3
Kel'el Ware S 33 14 12 0
Duncan Robinson S 30 14 1 1
Davion Mitchell 32 12 1 4
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 28 7 4 2
Alec Burks 14 4 3 2
Haywood Highsmith 26 3 3 3
Pelle Larsson 4 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
2 Andrew Wiggins MIA
9%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
9%
4 Tobias Harris DET
9%
5 Bam Adebayo MIA
8%
6 Jalen Duren DET
8%
7 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
7%
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
6%
10 Duncan Robinson MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
27%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 27.1 5.4 8.5
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.0 9.7 4.4
3 Tyler Herro MIA 21.9 4.6 5.8
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA 19.6 4.6 3.2
5 Tobias Harris DET 15.5 7.1 2.0
6 Jalen Duren DET 13.1 10.3 2.3
7 Malik Beasley DET 12.7 2.5 1.9
8 Dennis Schroder DET 11.7 3.1 4.8
9 Duncan Robinson MIA 11.7 2.4 1.9
10 Nikola Jovic MIA 10.9 3.1 2.9
11 Ausar Thompson DET 10.0 5.1 2.2
12 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 9.9 3.3 1.5
13 Kel'el Ware MIA 9.9 8.2 1.4
14 Davion Mitchell MIA 9.9 3.3 5.0
15 Terry Rozier MIA 7.1 2.4 1.9
16 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.8 2.8 1.8
17 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.4 2.7 1.2
18 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 6.2 3.4 1.7
19 Alec Burks MIA 6.2 2.9 1.2
20 Isaiah Stewart DET 6.1 5.1 1.3
21 Kyle Anderson MIA 5.6 2.8 1.9
22 Ronald Holland II DET 5.6 2.6 1.2
23 Pelle Larsson MIA 4.9 1.5 1.1
24 Marcus Sasser DET 4.6 1.2 1.7
25 Paul Reed DET 3.7 3.1 0.8
26 Lindy Waters III DET 2.9 1.3 0.7
27 Kevin Love MIA 2.7 2.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.