NBA games

HOU @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
116–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU28283228116
ORL23292036108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home ORL
74% 26%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 37 26 7 2
Alperen Sengun S 37 22 12 4
Fred VanVleet S 36 19 6 3
Tari Eason S 32 16 9 4
Dillon Brooks S 36 15 3 3
Jabari Smith Jr. 26 13 3 2
Steven Adams 23 3 6 0
Jeff Green 9 2 0 0
Aaron Holiday 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 39 31 6 5
Franz Wagner S 38 20 8 7
Goga Bitadze 23 19 8 0
Cory Joseph S 26 13 1 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 32 10 2 4
Anthony Black 22 7 4 3
Wendell Carter Jr. S 19 4 6 0
Tristan da Silva 16 2 2 2
Jonathan Isaac 8 2 3 0
Caleb Houstan 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cory Joseph · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Cory Joseph makes 26-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
15%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
3 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
4 Jalen Green HOU
9%
5 Franz Wagner ORL
9%
6 Fred VanVleet HOU
9%
7 Tari Eason HOU
8%
8 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
22%
Layup
45%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 29.4 7.2 5.1
2 Franz Wagner ORL 23.1 5.0 4.1
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.2 10.6 5.2
4 Jalen Green HOU 21.4 5.5 5.3
5 Dillon Brooks HOU 17.0 3.7 2.4
6 Tari Eason HOU 15.9 6.5 2.2
7 Amen Thompson HOU 13.8 9.2 4.2
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.6 6.7 1.5
9 Cole Anthony ORL 12.2 4.3 3.3
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.4 6.9 2.0
11 Fred VanVleet HOU 10.0 3.7 4.6
12 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 9.8 2.4 1.7
13 Aaron Holiday HOU 7.0 1.7 1.3
14 Anthony Black ORL 6.8 2.5 1.7
15 Jeff Green HOU 4.6 2.1 0.8
16 Jock Landale HOU 4.4 2.8 0.6
17 Cam Whitmore HOU 4.3 1.7 0.8
18 Cory Joseph ORL 4.3 1.6 1.5
19 Tristan da Silva ORL 4.2 1.8 0.9
20 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.0 1.0 0.6
21 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.9 3.2 0.6
22 Steven Adams HOU 3.8 5.6 1.6
23 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.7 2.9 0.8
24 Mac McClung ORL 3.6 1.5 1.2
25 Reed Sheppard HOU 3.4 1.2 1.0
26 Goga Bitadze ORL 3.3 2.2 1.0
27 Gary Harris ORL 2.9 1.6 0.9
28 Nate Williams HOU 2.8 1.1 0.5
29 Jett Howard ORL 2.6 1.0 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.