NBA games

DAL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
131–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL21363440131
IND33352245135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home IND
13% 87%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
P.J. Washington S 38 26 5 0
Jaden Hardy 24 24 2 2
Naji Marshall S 39 20 9 3
Kai Jones S 24 18 11 1
Max Christie 36 17 8 1
Spencer Dinwiddie S 42 17 3 12
Kessler Edwards S 21 9 2 1
Dwight Powell 15 0 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 34 29 1 5
Bennedict Mathurin S 32 23 7 1
Andrew Nembhard S 32 22 3 8
Aaron Nesmith S 35 18 5 2
Obi Toppin 23 13 4 2
Myles Turner S 22 9 6 2
Thomas Bryant 11 7 3 0
Ben Sheppard 26 5 6 1
T.J. McConnell 16 3 2 8
Jarace Walker 6 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Nembhard · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Andrew Nembhard makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Naji Marshall DAL
10%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
3 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
4 Myles Turner IND
8%
5 Dereck Lively II DAL
8%
6 Daniel Gafford DAL
7%
7 Klay Thompson DAL
7%
8 Jarace Walker IND
6%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
6%
10 Andrew Nembhard IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
23%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 24.7 6.9 4.1
2 Naji Marshall DAL 22.2 7.6 5.1
3 P.J. Washington DAL 17.7 8.6 3.1
4 Klay Thompson DAL 17.7 4.1 3.0
5 Myles Turner IND 16.2 6.0 2.2
6 Aaron Nesmith IND 15.4 4.4 2.2
7 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 14.1 3.3 4.1
8 Daniel Gafford DAL 13.8 10.1 2.3
9 Bennedict Mathurin IND 13.5 3.7 2.3
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.3 3.4 6.0
11 Max Christie DAL 10.5 3.9 2.7
12 Dereck Lively II DAL 10.4 8.5 2.9
13 Obi Toppin IND 10.4 3.9 1.7
14 Kessler Edwards DAL 9.9 4.4 1.5
15 T.J. McConnell IND 9.0 2.3 4.7
16 Caleb Martin DAL 6.9 3.3 2.1
17 Thomas Bryant IND 6.6 4.1 1.0
18 Ben Sheppard IND 5.9 3.0 1.9
19 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.7 1.1 0.9
20 Dwight Powell DAL 4.4 3.2 1.6
21 Jarace Walker IND 4.3 1.9 1.3
22 Tony Bradley IND 4.1 3.0 0.7
23 Quenton Jackson IND 4.0 1.6 1.1
24 Kai Jones DAL 3.3 1.9 0.3
25 Enrique Freeman IND 3.0 1.7 0.7
26 Johnny Furphy IND 1.8 1.5 0.4
27 James Johnson IND 1.7 0.8 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.