NBA games

CLE @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
119–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE45282917119
LAC37313826132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home LAC
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Max Strus S 26 24 4 1
Donovan Mitchell S 34 18 4 11
De'Andre Hunter 20 17 1 0
Darius Garland S 32 17 5 8
Evan Mobley S 31 17 3 1
Ty Jerome 20 10 0 4
Jarrett Allen S 32 8 8 1
Sam Merrill 14 3 1 0
Isaac Okoro 12 3 0 2
Dean Wade 16 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 35 33 7 4
Ivica Zubac S 35 28 20 1
James Harden S 39 22 4 9
Bogdan Bogdanovic 29 20 4 7
Norman Powell S 18 11 1 1
Derrick Jones Jr. 20 10 3 0
Amir Coffey 16 3 2 1
Nicolas Batum 17 3 5 3
Kris Dunn S 17 2 1 0
Ben Simmons 13 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Max Strus · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Max Strus makes 26-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
14%
2 Darius Garland CLE
11%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
9%
5 Jarrett Allen CLE
9%
6 Evan Mobley CLE
9%
7 Norman Powell LAC
8%
8 James Harden LAC
8%
9 Max Strus CLE
7%
10 De'Andre Hunter CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
30%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 25.3 5.9 9.1
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.0 4.6 5.0
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC 23.3 5.9 3.8
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 21.2 11.1 3.2
5 Norman Powell LAC 20.7 3.7 2.5
6 Evan Mobley CLE 20.4 9.8 3.8
7 Darius Garland CLE 19.2 3.5 6.4
8 Ty Jerome CLE 14.2 3.5 3.0
9 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.7 9.3 1.9
10 De'Andre Hunter CLE 13.4 4.5 1.7
11 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 13.2 4.2 2.8
12 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 11.2 3.3 1.1
13 Max Strus CLE 10.2 4.0 2.8
14 Amir Coffey LAC 7.7 1.9 1.3
15 Kris Dunn LAC 7.1 3.0 3.3
16 Nicolas Batum LAC 7.1 3.2 1.1
17 Sam Merrill CLE 6.8 2.3 1.0
18 Ben Simmons LAC 6.2 3.9 4.1
19 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.7 2.5 1.0
20 Dean Wade CLE 5.1 2.8 1.0
21 Javonte Green CLE 4.4 2.3 0.7
22 Drew Eubanks LAC 3.4 2.7 0.6
23 Patty Mills LAC 2.9 1.2 0.7
24 Jaylon Tyson CLE 2.8 1.2 0.8
25 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 2.8 1.4 1.4
26 Kobe Brown LAC 2.4 1.3 0.7
27 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.2 1.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.