NBA games

MIL @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
118–89
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL34233427118
LAL1927232089

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home LAL
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 29 28 7 4
Gary Trent Jr. 27 23 3 3
Kyle Kuzma S 31 20 5 5
Brook Lopez S 32 11 7 0
Ryan Rollins S 29 10 5 4
AJ Green 20 6 3 2
Taurean Prince S 25 6 2 1
Chris Livingston 4 4 1 0
Kevin Porter Jr. 17 3 4 1
Andre Jackson Jr. 7 3 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bronny James 30 17 3 5
Dalton Knecht S 31 17 4 3
Alex Len 17 10 9 1
Gabe Vincent S 25 9 2 4
Markieff Morris S 28 9 4 2
Jaxson Hayes S 16 9 5 3
Jordan Goodwin S 31 8 8 5
Shake Milton 23 4 6 3
Trey Jemison III 16 4 5 0
Cam Reddish 22 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 4-foot two point shot (Kyle Kuzma assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
19%
2 Jaxson Hayes LAL
15%
3 Kyle Kuzma MIL
13%
4 Brook Lopez MIL
11%
5 Alex Len LAL
11%
6 Taurean Prince MIL
10%
7 Jordan Goodwin LAL
10%
8 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL
10%
9 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
0%
10 Ryan Rollins MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
44%
Jumper
16%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 27.3 11.9 6.8
2 Dalton Knecht LAL 13.3 3.8 1.7
3 Kyle Kuzma MIL 12.8 5.5 1.6
4 Brook Lopez MIL 12.4 5.5 1.6
5 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 10.8 2.2 1.4
6 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 10.0 3.6 3.4
7 Jaxson Hayes LAL 10.0 6.7 1.3
8 Taurean Prince MIL 9.8 3.9 2.0
9 Gabe Vincent LAL 9.6 1.8 1.7
10 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 9.3 3.5 1.4
11 Jordan Goodwin LAL 7.8 3.7 1.6
12 AJ Green MIL 6.3 2.0 1.7
13 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 6.3 4.6 1.5
14 Ryan Rollins MIL 4.9 2.2 1.5
15 Shake Milton LAL 4.7 1.7 0.9
16 Bronny James LAL 4.0 1.4 0.7
17 Pat Connaughton MIL 3.3 1.5 0.9
18 Jericho Sims MIL 3.2 5.0 0.8
19 Trey Jemison III LAL 3.1 2.0 0.3
20 Markieff Morris LAL 2.9 0.9 0.7
21 Tyler Smith MIL 2.6 1.3 0.5
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.6 1.3 0.6
23 Cam Reddish LAL 2.6 1.2 0.5
24 Pete Nance MIL 1.7 1.1 0.4
25 Chris Livingston MIL 1.7 1.2 0.3
26 Alex Len LAL 1.6 1.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.