NBA games

WSH @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
97112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH2425212797
POR31283023112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home POR
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alex Sarr S 22 20 4 3
Tristan Vukcevic 24 17 8 2
Jaylen Martin 28 11 6 3
Kyshawn George S 20 11 3 0
Jordan Poole S 11 9 1 1
AJ Johnson S 35 8 7 4
Anthony Gill 21 7 4 1
Justin Champagnie 19 5 5 2
Khris Middleton S 11 4 3 0
Bub Carrington 25 3 4 8
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 23 30 1 2
Shaedon Sharpe S 25 16 5 2
Deni Avdija S 27 15 6 2
Duop Reath 23 15 4 3
Donovan Clingan S 25 11 13 2
Scoot Henderson 31 11 5 3
Matisse Thybulle 22 9 4 3
Kris Murray S 37 5 10 3
Bryce McGowens 5 0 1 0
Dalano Banton 20 0 1 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Khris Middleton · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Khris Middleton makes 11-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
12%
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
3 Anfernee Simons POR
10%
4 Deni Avdija POR
9%
5 Alex Sarr WSH
9%
6 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
7 Jerami Grant POR
8%
8 Jordan Poole WSH
7%
9 Toumani Camara POR
7%
10 Kyshawn George WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
30%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anfernee Simons POR 23.7 3.6 4.7
2 Jordan Poole WSH 23.5 4.0 4.3
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 23.0 6.4 4.1
4 Deni Avdija POR 22.4 8.5 5.5
5 Deandre Ayton POR 18.6 11.6 2.5
6 Alex Sarr WSH 17.1 6.7 2.9
7 Scoot Henderson POR 17.1 3.9 4.7
8 Toumani Camara POR 14.0 5.1 3.0
9 Jerami Grant POR 13.1 4.1 2.2
10 Kyshawn George WSH 12.9 5.2 3.6
11 Khris Middleton WSH 12.6 4.3 4.0
12 Bub Carrington WSH 11.6 4.1 4.7
13 Richaun Holmes WSH 10.4 7.7 2.1
14 Donovan Clingan POR 8.6 9.7 2.1
15 Justin Champagnie WSH 8.3 6.7 1.5
16 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 6.4 3.5 0.8
17 Duop Reath POR 6.3 3.5 1.1
18 Kris Murray POR 5.9 3.4 1.1
19 Robert Williams III POR 4.6 5.9 0.8
20 Dalano Banton POR 4.4 2.1 1.3
21 AJ Johnson WSH 4.3 1.7 1.8
22 Jaylen Martin WSH 2.7 1.2 0.4
23 Anthony Gill WSH 1.6 0.9 0.4
24 Colby Jones WSH 1.6 1.5 0.4
25 Bryce McGowens POR 1.6 0.6 0.4
26 Justin Minaya POR 1.5 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.