NBA games

BKN @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
96–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN2623212696
BOS21232733104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home BOS
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
D'Angelo Russell S 29 18 5 7
Ziaire Williams S 28 15 4 0
Keon Johnson S 23 13 3 1
Cameron Johnson S 29 11 2 4
Trendon Watford 20 11 0 4
Day'Ron Sharpe 19 9 7 1
Tyrese Martin 19 9 3 1
Nic Claxton S 29 6 9 2
Maxwell Lewis 19 3 4 0
Noah Clowney 18 1 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kristaps Porzingis S 29 25 13 3
Baylor Scheierman 16 20 3 1
Derrick White S 33 18 5 4
Jrue Holiday S 38 12 6 8
Payton Pritchard 34 10 4 2
Sam Hauser S 29 8 7 0
Al Horford S 32 4 5 6
Neemias Queta 9 4 2 0
Torrey Craig 8 2 2 0
Luke Kornet 12 1 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ziaire Williams · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Ziaire Williams makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cam Thomas BKN
11%
2 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
9%
3 Cameron Johnson BKN
9%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
8%
5 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
6 Al Horford BOS
7%
7 Ziaire Williams BKN
7%
8 Derrick White BOS
7%
9 Keon Johnson BKN
7%
10 Tyrese Martin BKN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
29%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cam Thomas BKN 23.1 3.7 4.8
2 Cameron Johnson BKN 19.4 4.8 4.6
3 Derrick White BOS 19.3 4.2 5.2
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 17.8 5.7 2.4
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 14.6 3.4 2.8
6 D'Angelo Russell BKN 12.5 3.1 4.5
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 11.7 4.1 3.6
8 Tyrese Martin BKN 11.2 3.3 2.3
9 Al Horford BOS 11.1 7.3 2.4
10 Ziaire Williams BKN 10.6 4.2 1.5
11 Nic Claxton BKN 10.4 7.0 2.9
12 Keon Johnson BKN 10.4 4.7 2.0
13 Trendon Watford BKN 9.1 3.8 3.6
14 Sam Hauser BOS 8.6 3.2 1.1
15 Jalen Wilson BKN 8.4 2.2 1.4
16 Noah Clowney BKN 7.3 3.3 0.8
17 Luke Kornet BOS 6.3 5.1 1.4
18 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.0 6.5 1.6
19 Neemias Queta BOS 4.8 4.7 0.9
20 Torrey Craig BOS 3.9 2.0 0.5
21 Maxwell Lewis BKN 3.6 1.5 0.7
22 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.9 1.3 1.0
23 JD Davison BOS 2.7 0.8 0.7
24 Drew Peterson BOS 2.1 1.1 0.7
25 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.8 1.4 0.6
26 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.4 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.