NBA games

ATL @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
134–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL32383628134
CHA25322322102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home CHA
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 31 31 2 8
Dyson Daniels S 28 22 7 7
Zaccharie Risacher S 24 21 8 2
Onyeka Okongwu S 27 15 10 3
Terance Mann 22 12 4 2
Dominick Barlow 21 12 6 1
Georges Niang 24 6 0 0
Garrison Mathews 10 6 2 1
Vit Krejci 31 5 4 2
Mouhamed Gueye S 23 4 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Seth Curry S 25 19 0 1
DaQuan Jeffries S 32 19 5 1
Marcus Garrett 24 12 3 3
Jusuf Nurkic 17 11 2 0
Nick Smith Jr. 27 11 5 4
Damion Baugh S 33 11 9 5
Wendell Moore Jr. 21 11 6 3
Mark Williams S 23 4 5 5
Moussa Diabate 18 2 2 0
Josh Green S 20 2 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dyson Daniels · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Dyson Daniels makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Onyeka Okongwu assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
13%
2 Mark Williams CHA
12%
3 Dyson Daniels ATL
11%
4 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
11%
5 Trae Young ATL
11%
6 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
7 Mouhamed Gueye ATL
7%
8 Grant Williams CHA
7%
9 DaQuan Jeffries CHA
7%
10 Damion Baugh CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
34%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 28.5 3.8 11.4
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 18.5 10.3 4.4
3 Caris LeVert ATL 17.4 3.6 3.0
4 Mark Williams CHA 17.2 11.2 2.8
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 16.2 10.8 2.2
6 Dyson Daniels ATL 16.0 5.8 5.4
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 14.1 4.6 1.6
8 Grant Williams CHA 13.2 6.1 2.3
9 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 13.0 2.7 3.2
10 Terance Mann ATL 12.2 3.6 2.6
11 Georges Niang ATL 10.9 3.8 1.9
12 Damion Baugh CHA 8.9 2.4 3.7
13 Vit Krejci ATL 8.7 3.4 2.4
14 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 8.0 3.1 1.5
15 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 7.9 6.3 2.4
16 Josh Green CHA 7.8 2.8 2.2
17 Marcus Garrett CHA 7.0 1.7 3.3
18 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.6 3.5 1.0
19 Seth Curry CHA 5.4 2.0 1.2
20 Wendell Moore Jr. CHA 5.3 2.6 1.0
21 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.2 3.7 1.0
22 Dominick Barlow ATL 5.1 2.8 0.7
23 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.7 1.9 0.6
24 Taj Gibson CHA 3.2 3.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.