NBA games

MEM @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
122–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM26283236122
SAC37283334132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home SAC
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 41 44 6 4
Brandon Clarke 25 15 8 3
Jaylen Wells S 34 14 4 2
Zach Edey S 24 12 8 1
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 31 12 3 3
John Konchar 17 8 8 1
Luke Kennard S 28 8 2 8
Cam Spencer 15 7 3 2
Vince Williams Jr. 17 2 3 0
Lamar Stevens 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Monk S 36 28 3 7
Zach LaVine S 37 23 2 6
DeMar DeRozan S 33 22 6 8
Keegan Murray S 33 16 9 1
Jake LaRavia 23 12 2 1
Keon Ellis 19 9 0 3
Jonas Valanciunas 16 8 5 3
Domantas Sabonis S 12 6 1 4
Trey Lyles 20 5 9 0
Devin Carter 11 2 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keegan Murray · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Keegan Murray makes 2-foot layup (DeMar DeRozan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
13%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
3 Desmond Bane MEM
11%
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
5 Malik Monk SAC
11%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
7 Zach Edey MEM
10%
8 Zach LaVine SAC
8%
9 Luke Kennard MEM
7%
10 Jaylen Wells MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
26%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC 24.0 4.6 6.1
2 Zach LaVine SAC 23.5 4.3 3.7
3 Desmond Bane MEM 23.0 7.7 6.3
4 Malik Monk SAC 18.2 4.4 6.3
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 17.9 4.6 2.0
6 Domantas Sabonis SAC 15.6 11.4 6.1
7 Keegan Murray SAC 13.0 5.3 1.7
8 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 12.2 10.5 2.7
9 Luke Kennard MEM 12.0 2.9 3.5
10 Keon Ellis SAC 9.9 3.0 1.8
11 Zach Edey MEM 9.0 7.6 1.1
12 Brandon Clarke MEM 8.9 5.7 1.2
13 Jaylen Wells MEM 8.1 3.2 2.0
14 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 7.9 3.0 1.8
15 Jake LaRavia SAC 6.0 2.8 1.5
16 Trey Lyles SAC 4.9 3.4 1.5
17 Lamar Stevens MEM 4.8 3.2 0.9
18 Cam Spencer MEM 4.6 1.5 1.3
19 Marvin Bagley III MEM 4.4 2.9 0.6
20 Devin Carter SAC 4.1 1.8 1.1
21 Jae Crowder SAC 4.0 2.2 0.8
22 Jay Huff MEM 3.3 1.4 0.6
23 Markelle Fultz SAC 2.6 1.2 0.9
24 John Konchar MEM 2.5 1.4 0.6
25 Doug McDermott SAC 2.5 0.6 0.4
26 Isaiah Crawford SAC 2.0 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.