NBA games

TOR @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
89–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR2911242589
PHX24393036129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home PHX
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 31 16 4 3
Immanuel Quickley S 30 15 7 7
Jamison Battle S 30 14 3 1
Orlando Robinson 21 12 8 3
A.J. Lawson 25 12 3 0
Colin Castleton S 30 10 6 0
Garrett Temple 24 5 2 0
Jamal Shead 23 3 1 4
Jonathan Mogbo S 27 2 6 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 32 27 4 6
Ryan Dunn S 24 17 6 0
Tyus Jones 27 15 3 4
Kevin Durant S 26 14 3 3
Monte Morris 6 12 1 0
Royce O'Neale 24 11 10 3
Nick Richards S 12 10 4 1
Oso Ighodaro 26 9 9 4
Bol Bol 6 4 1 1
TyTy Washington Jr. 6 3 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nick Richards · Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Nick Richards makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant PHX
16%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
14%
3 Devin Booker PHX
12%
4 Nick Richards PHX
10%
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
7 Ryan Dunn PHX
7%
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR
7%
9 Jamal Shead TOR
6%
10 Jamison Battle TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
31%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 24.9 6.7 4.3
2 Devin Booker PHX 24.0 4.4 7.6
3 Immanuel Quickley TOR 21.2 4.6 5.5
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.2 7.7 5.3
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.4 6.8 3.5
6 Nick Richards PHX 12.0 8.8 1.2
7 Orlando Robinson TOR 11.6 6.9 2.8
8 A.J. Lawson TOR 11.1 3.7 1.6
9 Tyus Jones PHX 10.0 2.3 4.7
10 Ochai Agbaji TOR 9.6 3.6 1.3
11 Jamal Shead TOR 9.3 2.4 4.7
12 Bol Bol PHX 8.6 4.1 1.1
13 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.5 3.5 2.4
14 Vasilije Micic PHX 7.7 2.1 3.1
15 Jamison Battle TOR 7.6 3.3 1.0
16 Mason Plumlee PHX 7.3 6.5 1.2
17 Colin Castleton TOR 6.4 5.6 1.6
18 Cody Martin PHX 6.3 3.9 1.8
19 Chris Boucher TOR 6.0 3.6 0.7
20 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.7 2.6 0.8
21 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 5.2 3.0 1.5
22 Collin Gillespie PHX 4.2 2.0 1.7
23 Oso Ighodaro PHX 3.7 2.8 0.8
24 Monte Morris PHX 3.5 1.3 1.3
25 Garrett Temple TOR 3.3 1.5 1.5
26 Damion Lee PHX 3.3 0.9 0.4
27 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 2.5 1.2 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.