NBA games

DEN @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
114–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN29332725114
GS22282728105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home GS
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Gordon S 37 38 6 3
Michael Porter Jr. S 41 21 10 5
Peyton Watson S 35 13 5 1
Russell Westbrook S 42 12 12 16
Hunter Tyson S 20 9 7 2
Zeke Nnaji 11 7 3 0
Spencer Jones 19 6 1 1
Vlatko Cancar 24 5 8 2
Jalen Pickett 11 3 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 33 23 8 6
Stephen Curry S 36 20 4 7
Gary Payton II 26 18 3 1
Jonathan Kuminga 28 13 3 4
Draymond Green S 33 10 6 5
Moses Moody S 25 9 2 0
Kevon Looney 15 6 7 0
Quinten Post S 8 4 1 0
Buddy Hield 21 2 0 1
Gui Santos 14 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Gordon · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Aaron Gordon makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III GS
17%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
15%
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
14%
4 Russell Westbrook DEN
12%
5 Draymond Green GS
11%
6 Stephen Curry GS
10%
7 Gui Santos GS
10%
8 Moses Moody GS
10%
9 Buddy Hield GS
0%
10 Hunter Tyson DEN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
21%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
21%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 27.7 4.5 7.1
2 Jonathan Kuminga GS 21.2 6.3 3.3
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 15.9 5.5 6.1
4 Russell Westbrook DEN 15.8 5.0 5.2
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.3 4.7 3.0
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.2 7.6 1.7
7 Draymond Green GS 14.0 7.2 6.4
8 Moses Moody GS 12.1 3.4 1.9
9 Buddy Hield GS 10.7 3.1 2.5
10 Gary Payton II GS 9.5 3.8 1.8
11 Quinten Post GS 9.0 4.9 1.5
12 Gui Santos GS 7.0 3.7 2.2
13 Peyton Watson DEN 5.6 2.7 1.3
14 Kevon Looney GS 4.8 5.0 1.1
15 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.6 2.5 0.8
16 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.7 1.2 1.1
17 Dario Saric DEN 3.5 2.7 1.4
18 Vlatko Cancar DEN 3.2 1.5 0.6
19 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.4 0.9 0.3
20 Pat Spencer GS 2.1 1.4 0.6
21 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.0 4.1 0.4
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 1.9 1.4 0.5
23 Spencer Jones DEN 1.4 0.6 0.2
24 PJ Hall DEN 1.4 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.