NBA games

ORL @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
116–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL29321837116
SA34272321105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home SA
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 33 24 10 4
Franz Wagner S 36 24 5 7
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 31 23 1 3
Caleb Houstan 25 12 1 3
Cole Anthony 19 9 5 4
Wendell Carter Jr. S 18 8 5 2
Cory Joseph S 18 6 2 1
Jonathan Isaac 18 4 3 0
Anthony Black 20 4 2 3
Goga Bitadze 12 2 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Harrison Barnes S 29 24 1 0
Julian Champagnie 32 19 4 2
Stephon Castle S 35 16 8 6
Devin Vassell S 33 11 4 0
Bismack Biyombo S 26 11 5 1
Chris Paul S 28 10 5 7
Keldon Johnson 18 7 7 4
Blake Wesley 18 4 4 3
Sandro Mamukelashvili 19 3 0 0
Jordan McLaughlin 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bismack Biyombo · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Bismack Biyombo makes 3-foot layup (Chris Paul assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephon Castle SA
14%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
13%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
4 Harrison Barnes SA
10%
5 Bismack Biyombo SA
10%
6 Devin Vassell SA
9%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
8 Cory Joseph ORL
8%
9 Chris Paul SA
8%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
34%
Jumper
22%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 30.2 8.1 5.7
2 Franz Wagner ORL 25.0 6.5 5.7
3 Stephon Castle SA 20.3 4.5 5.4
4 Devin Vassell SA 17.5 4.8 3.1
5 Keldon Johnson SA 14.2 5.5 2.3
6 Anthony Black ORL 12.9 4.4 3.1
7 Cole Anthony ORL 12.1 3.9 3.4
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 11.7 7.2 1.4
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 10.2 3.4 1.9
10 Harrison Barnes SA 10.2 2.6 1.7
11 Cory Joseph ORL 9.4 3.8 2.9
12 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 8.7 4.5 1.3
13 Chris Paul SA 8.2 3.1 4.8
14 Julian Champagnie SA 8.1 3.8 1.8
15 Caleb Houstan ORL 7.3 2.1 1.1
16 Blake Wesley SA 6.1 2.1 2.1
17 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.4 4.7 1.4
18 Tristan da Silva ORL 5.2 2.3 0.9
19 Gary Harris ORL 4.8 2.5 1.2
20 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.5 3.0 0.9
21 Bismack Biyombo SA 4.4 4.2 1.0
22 Jett Howard ORL 4.0 1.6 0.8
23 Trevelin Queen ORL 3.8 2.0 0.8
24 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.5 1.0 1.3
25 Malaki Branham SA 3.3 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.