NBA games

DET @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
127–81
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET35282539127
NO1319311881

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home NO
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 30 24 4 8
Simone Fontecchio 22 23 7 0
Dennis Schroder 19 12 0 5
Malik Beasley 24 11 4 3
Ronald Holland II 20 10 2 3
Tobias Harris S 25 9 6 0
Ausar Thompson S 18 9 4 3
Jalen Duren S 22 9 7 6
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 21 8 3 0
Isaiah Stewart 16 6 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 28 30 6 3
Yves Missi S 22 12 10 0
Kelly Olynyk S 24 9 3 3
Karlo Matkovic 20 7 7 0
Jordan Hawkins 28 6 2 1
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 18 6 1 1
Jose Alvarado 28 3 1 4
Antonio Reeves 17 3 0 0
CJ McCollum S 30 3 4 5
Bruce Brown 16 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Duren · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Jalen Duren makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
11%
2 Trey Murphy III NO
10%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
4 Tobias Harris DET
9%
5 Jalen Duren DET
9%
6 Yves Missi NO
9%
7 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
7%
9 CJ McCollum NO
7%
10 Kelly Olynyk NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
19%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
16%
Layup
45%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 26.9 5.2 9.8
2 Zion Williamson NO 24.7 7.5 6.0
3 Trey Murphy III NO 20.2 4.9 3.6
4 CJ McCollum NO 17.4 3.9 5.3
5 Tobias Harris DET 16.7 6.8 2.3
6 Malik Beasley DET 14.8 2.7 2.0
7 Jalen Duren DET 13.7 10.4 2.1
8 Kelly Olynyk NO 11.7 6.5 3.7
9 Dennis Schroder DET 11.6 3.2 5.2
10 Jordan Hawkins NO 11.3 3.3 1.7
11 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 10.3 3.3 1.7
12 Ausar Thompson DET 10.3 5.1 2.3
13 Yves Missi NO 10.2 7.4 1.1
14 Karlo Matkovic NO 10.0 6.7 1.4
15 Jose Alvarado NO 9.9 2.3 4.6
16 Bruce Brown NO 7.9 3.5 2.5
17 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 6.3 3.0 1.0
18 Isaiah Stewart DET 6.0 5.0 1.4
19 Ronald Holland II DET 5.7 2.6 1.3
20 Mo Bamba NO 5.7 5.0 0.7
21 Simone Fontecchio DET 5.5 2.3 1.3
22 Antonio Reeves NO 4.9 1.8 0.9
23 Marcus Sasser DET 3.8 0.9 1.9
24 Paul Reed DET 3.1 2.9 0.6
25 Lindy Waters III DET 2.2 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.