NBA games

IND @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
132–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
IND3030292815132
MIN3016413013130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home MIN
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Obi Toppin S 45 34 10 2
Bennedict Mathurin S 35 22 3 1
Jarace Walker S 35 13 5 1
Quenton Jackson 18 13 2 0
Tony Bradley 20 12 9 2
Andrew Nembhard S 19 12 2 3
T.J. McConnell 30 11 4 13
Thomas Bryant S 33 10 7 0
Ben Sheppard 29 3 6 6
Enrique Freeman 0 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 41 38 3 5
Naz Reid 30 21 4 0
Donte DiVincenzo 32 19 3 3
Julius Randle S 41 17 6 4
Jaden McDaniels S 33 13 7 4
Mike Conley S 32 9 3 5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 27 8 9 3
Rudy Gobert S 22 3 7 1
Jaylen Clark 9 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:53 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle MIN
17%
2 Rudy Gobert MIN
17%
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN
16%
4 Anthony Edwards MIN
15%
5 Andrew Nembhard IND
12%
6 Mike Conley MIN
11%
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
10%
8 Naz Reid MIN
0%
9 Obi Toppin IND
0%
10 Jarace Walker IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
32%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.6 5.8 5.3
2 Julius Randle MIN 19.8 6.3 5.9
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN 18.6 7.4 3.4
4 Naz Reid MIN 14.2 8.0 3.4
5 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 13.9 4.0 4.6
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.1 10.8 1.7
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND 13.0 3.8 2.1
8 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.6 3.1 5.5
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.4 3.4 2.5
10 Mike Conley MIN 9.0 2.4 3.5
11 T.J. McConnell IND 8.1 2.2 3.4
12 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 7.1 2.9 1.1
13 Obi Toppin IND 7.0 3.1 1.3
14 Ben Sheppard IND 5.7 2.9 1.4
15 Thomas Bryant IND 5.6 3.6 0.7
16 Bones Hyland MIN 5.2 1.5 1.8
17 Luka Garza MIN 4.6 1.9 0.8
18 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.1 1.5 1.0
19 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.8 1.5 1.6
20 Quenton Jackson IND 2.9 1.1 1.1
21 Enrique Freeman IND 2.5 1.5 0.5
22 Josh Minott MIN 2.5 1.6 0.5
23 Tony Bradley IND 2.0 1.4 0.4
24 Joe Ingles MIN 1.9 0.7 1.1
25 Jarace Walker IND 1.8 1.1 0.7
26 RayJ Dennis IND 1.2 0.7 0.4
27 James Johnson IND 1.1 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.