NBA games

PHI @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
137–144
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
PHI443424296137
HOU2829452913144

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home HOU
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Quentin Grimes S 43 46 13 4
Jared Butler S 37 21 2 5
Justin Edwards S 40 18 3 4
Jalen Hood-Schifino 31 12 4 1
Oshae Brissett S 43 11 5 2
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 16 11 3 2
Ricky Council IV S 25 10 1 2
Alex Reese 13 6 1 0
Chuma Okeke 17 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 45 30 7 13
Jabari Smith Jr. 39 30 8 3
Dillon Brooks S 40 25 6 5
Tari Eason S 39 21 8 1
Alperen Sengun S 22 13 11 5
Aaron Holiday 14 8 1 1
Jock Landale 6 7 3 1
Jae'Sean Tate 22 7 7 1
Fred VanVleet S 38 3 7 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Quentin Grimes · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Quentin Grimes makes 25-foot three point shot (Justin Edwards assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
10%
3 Jalen Green HOU
9%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
5 Quentin Grimes PHI
8%
6 Alperen Sengun HOU
8%
7 Tari Eason HOU
7%
8 Dillon Brooks HOU
6%
9 Ricky Council IV PHI
6%
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
42%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Alperen Sengun HOU 23.8 11.2 5.9
2 Quentin Grimes PHI 23.5 4.4 4.2
3 Jalen Green HOU 21.8 5.7 5.0
4 Tyrese Maxey PHI 19.5 3.0 5.6
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 19.1 4.2 2.0
6 Tari Eason HOU 17.4 6.5 2.8
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 16.3 4.0 2.6
8 Amen Thompson HOU 14.7 9.7 4.6
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.7 6.9 1.5
10 Fred VanVleet HOU 12.6 3.6 5.2
11 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 10.5 2.6 2.0
12 Justin Edwards PHI 9.5 3.1 1.6
13 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 9.1 5.2 1.9
14 Jared Butler PHI 8.8 2.6 4.1
15 Ricky Council IV PHI 8.5 3.3 1.4
16 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.5 1.9 1.4
17 Jalen Hood-Schifino PHI 6.3 2.3 2.6
18 Jeff Green HOU 5.5 2.3 1.0
19 Cam Whitmore HOU 5.2 2.0 1.1
20 Steven Adams HOU 4.7 5.8 1.8
21 Jock Landale HOU 4.6 3.3 0.7
22 Alex Reese PHI 4.4 3.0 0.6
23 Reed Sheppard HOU 4.0 1.3 1.2
24 Nate Williams HOU 3.5 1.3 0.8
25 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.2 2.4 0.8
26 Chuma Okeke PHI 2.6 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.