NBA games

MIA @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
95–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA2920153195
NY18294128116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home NY
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Duncan Robinson S 28 22 2 2
Tyler Herro S 30 20 3 1
Bam Adebayo S 34 12 7 4
Davion Mitchell 35 12 4 5
Kel'el Ware 19 10 6 0
Kyle Anderson 17 7 1 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 30 6 11 7
Pelle Larsson 14 4 3 0
Haywood Highsmith S 27 2 2 2
Terry Rozier 6 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 32 28 1 3
Karl-Anthony Towns S 31 23 7 3
Josh Hart S 29 12 13 11
Miles McBride S 29 10 2 3
Mitchell Robinson 24 10 9 1
Landry Shamet 25 9 3 0
OG Anunoby S 32 9 1 2
Cameron Payne 19 7 2 5
Precious Achiuwa 10 4 3 0
Tyler Kolek 3 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyler Herro · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Tyler Herro makes 9-foot two point shot (Bam Adebayo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyler Herro MIA
16%
2 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
5 OG Anunoby NY
10%
6 Kel'el Ware MIA
8%
7 Bam Adebayo MIA
8%
8 Josh Hart NY
7%
9 Miles McBride NY
7%
10 Kevin Love MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
42%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 22.3 11.2 2.7
2 Tyler Herro MIA 22.0 4.4 6.2
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 21.8 9.6 4.7
4 OG Anunoby NY 19.6 5.5 3.5
5 Mikal Bridges NY 19.4 3.7 4.3
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA 19.2 4.7 3.1
7 Josh Hart NY 13.0 9.7 5.2
8 Duncan Robinson MIA 11.4 2.6 1.9
9 Miles McBride NY 10.5 3.2 3.5
10 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.3 3.1 4.9
11 Kel'el Ware MIA 9.8 9.0 1.4
12 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.5 3.3 1.6
13 Terry Rozier MIA 7.2 2.6 1.7
14 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 5.9 3.1 1.3
15 Precious Achiuwa NY 5.7 4.8 1.0
16 Landry Shamet NY 5.7 1.7 0.7
17 Kyle Anderson MIA 5.2 2.9 2.1
18 Cameron Payne NY 4.9 1.5 1.8
19 Pelle Larsson MIA 4.8 1.7 1.0
20 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.7 4.1 0.7
21 Kevin Love MIA 2.6 2.6 0.4
22 Delon Wright NY 2.2 1.1 1.3
23 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.0 0.8 0.4
24 Anton Watson NY 1.8 0.8 0.8
25 Tyler Kolek NY 1.5 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.