NBA games

WSH @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
93–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH2021312193
LAC30332621110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home LAC
7% 93%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 35 24 2 9
Bilal Coulibaly S 34 15 5 1
Alex Sarr S 28 14 10 2
Bub Carrington S 31 12 6 5
Jonas Valanciunas 18 12 10 1
Kyle Kuzma S 28 7 7 3
Kyshawn George 24 5 0 1
Johnny Davis 2 2 1 0
Justin Champagnie 15 1 3 0
Corey Kispert 23 1 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 32 22 3 3
Derrick Jones Jr. S 25 19 8 0
James Harden S 32 17 12 13
Kawhi Leonard S 24 15 7 1
Mo Bamba 15 13 6 1
Ivica Zubac S 29 11 9 2
Amir Coffey 28 10 2 1
Nicolas Batum 12 3 0 1
Kai Jones 3 0 1 0
Kobe Brown 3 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Norman Powell · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Norman Powell makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jordan Poole WSH
10%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
9%
4 Kyle Kuzma WSH
8%
5 James Harden LAC
8%
6 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC
7%
7 Norman Powell LAC
7%
8 Alex Sarr WSH
6%
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
6%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
33%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 22.6 4.4 10.0
2 Norman Powell LAC 21.8 4.3 2.5
3 Jordan Poole WSH 21.4 4.2 4.2
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 16.4 12.5 2.9
5 Kyle Kuzma WSH 15.4 5.5 3.5
6 Amir Coffey LAC 13.2 3.2 2.0
7 Kawhi Leonard LAC 12.9 3.5 2.0
8 Alex Sarr WSH 12.3 7.4 2.1
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 12.3 4.5 1.4
10 Corey Kispert WSH 11.4 3.0 1.8
11 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.6 3.9 2.7
12 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 10.2 7.8 1.7
13 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 10.1 3.5 4.4
14 Kyshawn George WSH 9.6 3.0 2.6
15 Bub Carrington WSH 9.3 3.6 3.2
16 Terance Mann LAC 9.0 2.8 1.7
17 Bones Hyland LAC 7.9 2.1 2.5
18 Mo Bamba LAC 6.1 5.2 0.8
19 Justin Champagnie WSH 5.4 2.7 1.0
20 Kobe Brown LAC 4.8 3.2 1.1
21 Jordan Miller LAC 4.2 2.4 1.1
22 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.8 3.1 1.0
23 Cam Christie LAC 3.7 1.9 0.8
24 Kai Jones LAC 3.1 2.2 0.7
25 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 2.9 1.3 0.4
26 Anthony Gill WSH 2.2 0.9 0.4
27 Johnny Davis WSH 2.2 0.9 0.4
28 Richaun Holmes WSH 1.9 2.3 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.