NBA games

OKC @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
121–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC24293929121
MIL26153331105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home MIL
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 34 31 2 8
Isaiah Hartenstein S 32 24 12 3
Isaiah Joe 30 19 6 2
Chet Holmgren S 35 16 8 3
Alex Caruso 23 10 3 5
Cason Wallace S 27 9 4 1
Aaron Wiggins 19 9 4 3
Jaylin Williams 14 3 1 0
Dillon Jones 6 0 3 0
Kenrich Williams S 19 0 6 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 36 21 12 10
Damian Lillard S 29 19 1 2
Gary Trent Jr. 25 12 1 2
Kevin Porter Jr. 19 11 4 1
Kyle Kuzma S 26 10 1 2
AJ Green 19 8 2 1
Brook Lopez S 33 8 5 0
Taurean Prince S 25 6 1 1
Ryan Rollins 4 6 1 0
Pat Connaughton 5 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kenrich Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
15%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
13%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
4 Damian Lillard MIL
9%
5 Aaron Wiggins OKC
9%
6 Kyle Kuzma MIL
8%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
8%
8 Brook Lopez MIL
7%
9 Kenrich Williams OKC
7%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
45%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 32.7 4.2 7.3
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 28.3 11.9 6.7
3 Damian Lillard MIL 24.3 4.8 6.2
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 14.7 8.6 1.9
5 Brook Lopez MIL 13.7 5.9 2.0
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC 13.3 4.7 1.9
7 Kyle Kuzma MIL 13.1 6.8 1.8
8 Cason Wallace OKC 12.7 3.9 2.9
9 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 12.0 8.0 3.3
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 11.3 3.0 1.5
11 Taurean Prince MIL 10.2 3.8 2.3
12 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 9.8 3.2 3.6
13 Alex Caruso OKC 7.9 2.8 2.1
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.7 2.4 1.7
15 AJ Green MIL 7.5 2.4 1.8
16 Ryan Rollins MIL 5.6 2.2 1.7
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.4 2.8 1.2
18 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.4 2.1 1.0
19 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.2 4.4 1.7
20 Jericho Sims MIL 4.3 5.5 0.9
21 Dillon Jones OKC 3.3 1.7 1.1
22 Pat Connaughton MIL 3.2 1.7 1.1
23 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.0 1.5 0.9
24 Pete Nance MIL 2.5 1.4 0.7
25 Tyler Smith MIL 2.2 1.2 0.5
26 Chris Livingston MIL 2.1 1.6 0.5
27 Adam Flagler OKC 1.9 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.