NBA games

UTAH @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
102–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH20312526102
MIN34283729128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home MIN
11% 89%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton S 34 22 4 4
Lauri Markkanen S 26 16 1 2
Walker Kessler S 31 15 19 0
Johnny Juzang 29 12 1 3
Isaiah Collier S 31 11 6 6
Kyle Filipowski 19 10 4 3
Svi Mykhailiuk 26 8 3 2
Brice Sensabaugh 24 6 5 2
Cody Williams S 20 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 31 41 2 2
Jaden McDaniels S 27 20 12 2
Donte DiVincenzo S 24 11 1 7
Julius Randle S 20 11 3 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 21 9 6 3
Jaylen Clark 17 8 3 4
Rudy Gobert S 26 7 6 0
Josh Minott 9 5 2 1
Naz Reid 20 5 9 3
Terrence Shannon Jr. 19 4 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden McDaniels · Layup (2 pts) · 10:50 Q1
"Jaden McDaniels makes 1-foot layup (Donte DiVincenzo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
12%
2 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
3 Julius Randle MIN
11%
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN
11%
5 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
6 Collin Sexton UTAH
10%
7 Walker Kessler UTAH
9%
8 Isaiah Collier UTAH
9%
9 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
9%
10 Cody Williams UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
34%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.8 6.4 6.0
2 Julius Randle MIN 22.0 6.7 5.9
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN 19.7 7.2 3.9
4 Keyonte George UTAH 18.4 4.2 5.3
5 Collin Sexton UTAH 17.7 3.4 4.9
6 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 16.9 6.1 1.4
7 Naz Reid MIN 16.5 8.0 3.7
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 16.4 4.4 5.3
9 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 16.1 7.9 2.8
10 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.6 11.8 2.2
11 Isaiah Collier UTAH 13.1 3.8 6.4
12 Walker Kessler UTAH 12.5 11.9 2.0
13 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 12.5 3.5 2.2
14 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 11.6 3.4 2.8
15 Johnny Juzang UTAH 9.1 3.7 1.0
16 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 7.3 2.5 1.9
17 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 7.2 2.6 1.3
18 Cody Williams UTAH 7.1 2.8 1.2
19 KJ Martin UTAH 7.0 3.4 1.4
20 Bones Hyland MIN 6.4 1.6 2.0
21 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.6 1.5 1.0
22 Luka Garza MIN 4.4 2.1 0.8
23 Jaden Springer UTAH 4.2 2.0 1.2
24 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.5 1.4 1.7
25 Josh Minott MIN 2.5 1.5 0.6
26 Joe Ingles MIN 2.3 0.7 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.