NBA games

TOR @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
102–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR27253020102
POR19332528105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home POR
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jakob Poeltl S 25 19 8 3
Ochai Agbaji S 25 19 3 2
Scottie Barnes S 28 16 6 6
Jamal Shead S 25 10 2 6
Orlando Robinson 30 10 4 2
Jamison Battle S 23 9 2 1
A.J. Lawson 33 9 8 6
Colin Castleton 27 8 12 2
Garrett Temple 24 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 32 22 1 4
Toumani Camara S 35 21 7 3
Deni Avdija S 34 19 6 6
Shaedon Sharpe S 34 17 4 1
Duop Reath 18 9 5 0
Kris Murray 17 7 7 1
Scoot Henderson 30 5 5 5
Donovan Clingan S 30 5 14 1
Matisse Thybulle 6 0 2 0
Dalano Banton 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Clingan · Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Donovan Clingan makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anfernee Simons POR
12%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
11%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
4 Deni Avdija POR
9%
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
8%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
8 Shaedon Sharpe POR
7%
9 Jerami Grant POR
7%
10 Colin Castleton TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
14%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anfernee Simons POR 23.8 3.4 4.5
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 22.0 5.9 3.8
3 Immanuel Quickley TOR 21.6 4.7 5.2
4 Deni Avdija POR 21.1 8.0 4.8
5 Scottie Barnes TOR 19.8 8.3 4.7
6 Deandre Ayton POR 18.1 10.8 2.3
7 Scoot Henderson POR 18.0 3.6 4.6
8 Toumani Camara POR 12.7 5.2 2.7
9 Jerami Grant POR 12.7 4.0 2.1
10 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.4 7.3 3.3
11 Orlando Robinson TOR 10.9 7.1 2.5
12 A.J. Lawson TOR 8.9 3.4 1.1
13 Jamal Shead TOR 8.4 2.6 4.5
14 Donovan Clingan POR 8.4 9.1 2.0
15 Ochai Agbaji TOR 8.0 3.0 1.0
16 Jamison Battle TOR 6.3 3.4 0.8
17 Chris Boucher TOR 5.7 3.7 0.7
18 Colin Castleton TOR 5.3 4.9 1.2
19 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 5.0 3.1 1.4
20 Duop Reath POR 5.0 2.7 1.0
21 Robert Williams III POR 4.1 5.8 0.8
22 Dalano Banton POR 3.8 1.5 1.1
23 Kris Murray POR 3.8 2.5 0.8
24 Garrett Temple TOR 3.2 1.4 1.5
25 Justin Minaya POR 1.3 0.7 0.3
26 Bryce McGowens POR 1.3 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.