NBA games

ORL @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
108–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL25223526108
CLE38222320103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home CLE
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 38 24 11 7
Franz Wagner S 36 22 8 2
Anthony Black 22 17 3 2
Wendell Carter Jr. S 35 16 14 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 30 15 2 3
Goga Bitadze 6 3 0 1
Cory Joseph S 24 3 3 4
Cole Anthony 6 2 1 0
Jonathan Isaac 7 2 1 0
Gary Harris 20 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 34 23 6 5
Jarrett Allen S 32 20 12 2
Darius Garland S 33 19 6 4
Ty Jerome 25 12 1 1
Max Strus S 27 10 6 5
De'Andre Hunter S 29 9 5 1
Sam Merrill 19 5 1 2
Dean Wade 22 3 6 0
Isaac Okoro 8 2 2 0
Tristan Thompson 11 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Layup (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes layup (Max Strus assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
15%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
4 Darius Garland CLE
10%
5 Franz Wagner ORL
9%
6 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
7 Cole Anthony ORL
7%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
9 Tristan da Silva ORL
6%
10 Max Strus CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
40%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 28.9 6.8 4.7
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 22.9 4.3 4.3
3 Franz Wagner ORL 22.4 5.1 4.3
4 Darius Garland CLE 19.3 3.3 6.7
5 Ty Jerome CLE 15.1 3.7 3.0
6 De'Andre Hunter CLE 13.8 4.5 1.7
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.3 9.6 2.0
8 Cole Anthony ORL 13.1 4.5 3.3
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.4 6.6 2.3
10 Max Strus CLE 10.3 4.2 2.5
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 9.7 2.6 1.7
12 Anthony Black ORL 7.7 3.0 1.8
13 Sam Merrill CLE 6.7 2.5 1.0
14 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.9 3.0 1.0
15 Javonte Green CLE 5.4 2.8 1.0
16 Dean Wade CLE 5.0 2.9 1.0
17 Cory Joseph ORL 4.9 1.7 1.2
18 Tristan da Silva ORL 4.9 2.1 0.9
19 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.5 3.4 0.7
20 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.5 3.1 1.2
21 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.5 1.4 0.6
22 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.8 1.7 1.1
23 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.8 2.0 1.6
24 Jett Howard ORL 3.6 1.5 0.9
25 Gary Harris ORL 3.5 1.8 0.8
26 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.5 2.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.