NBA games

ATL @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
114–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL27353022114
BKN33233531122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home BKN
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 39 28 6 12
Onyeka Okongwu S 32 21 15 1
Zaccharie Risacher S 23 16 2 0
Dyson Daniels S 34 14 6 7
Terance Mann 26 13 1 1
Georges Niang 27 12 4 1
Vit Krejci 27 8 1 2
Mouhamed Gueye S 17 2 2 1
Dominick Barlow 16 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cameron Johnson S 36 28 4 7
Keon Johnson S 29 22 8 5
Tyrese Martin S 33 16 6 3
Trendon Watford 27 13 1 5
Jalen Wilson S 30 13 4 6
Maxwell Lewis 22 10 1 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 18 8 7 2
Nic Claxton S 30 7 6 2
Reece Beekman 15 5 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nic Claxton · Layup (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Nic Claxton makes 3-foot layup (Cameron Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dyson Daniels ATL
11%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
3 Cam Thomas BKN
11%
4 Trae Young ATL
10%
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
9%
6 Cameron Johnson BKN
9%
7 Nic Claxton BKN
8%
8 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN
7%
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
10 Ziaire Williams BKN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
29%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 28.6 3.5 12.1
2 Cam Thomas BKN 24.3 3.8 5.3
3 Cameron Johnson BKN 19.8 5.0 4.3
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 18.6 10.3 4.5
5 Caris LeVert ATL 17.8 3.7 3.0
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 16.2 10.4 2.4
7 Dyson Daniels ATL 15.3 6.3 5.3
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 13.3 4.6 1.7
9 Nic Claxton BKN 12.5 7.4 3.2
10 Terance Mann ATL 12.4 3.7 2.9
11 Georges Niang ATL 11.9 3.9 2.1
12 Ziaire Williams BKN 11.8 4.4 1.8
13 Keon Johnson BKN 11.2 4.3 2.2
14 Tyrese Martin BKN 10.6 3.0 2.2
15 Trendon Watford BKN 9.7 4.1 3.8
16 Noah Clowney BKN 8.8 3.5 1.0
17 Jalen Wilson BKN 8.6 2.2 1.4
18 Vit Krejci ATL 8.4 3.4 2.2
19 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 8.0 7.2 2.2
20 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.7 3.5 1.0
21 Dominick Barlow ATL 5.5 2.9 0.7
22 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.8 1.9 0.6
23 Maxwell Lewis BKN 3.6 1.6 0.8
24 Reece Beekman BKN 3.5 1.4 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.