NBA games

PHX @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
96–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX1522342596
LAL31232924107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home LAL
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 37 21 9 2
Devin Booker S 40 19 6 11
Ryan Dunn S 23 13 3 1
Nick Richards S 19 11 6 0
Royce O'Neale 22 10 5 1
Tyus Jones 24 8 0 5
Oso Ighodaro 23 4 4 2
Bradley Beal S 15 4 2 0
Cody Martin 8 3 6 0
Collin Gillespie 23 3 7 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 40 33 11 8
Austin Reaves S 39 28 4 6
Jaxson Hayes S 29 19 6 3
Dorian Finney-Smith S 36 10 6 3
Gabe Vincent 27 9 1 1
Dalton Knecht 16 3 2 0
Christian Koloko 15 3 4 0
Jordan Goodwin S 28 2 3 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 10 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jordan Goodwin · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Jordan Goodwin makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
10%
2 Bradley Beal PHX
8%
3 Luka Doncic LAL
8%
4 Nick Richards PHX
7%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
7%
6 Jaxson Hayes LAL
7%
7 Mason Plumlee PHX
6%
8 Dalton Knecht LAL
6%
9 Kevin Durant PHX
5%
10 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
49%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 28.9 8.7 9.8
2 Kevin Durant PHX 24.9 6.5 4.9
3 Devin Booker PHX 24.5 4.4 7.3
4 Austin Reaves LAL 22.6 4.5 5.8
5 Bradley Beal PHX 19.3 4.1 5.0
6 Dalton Knecht LAL 11.8 3.1 1.6
7 Nick Richards PHX 11.6 8.7 1.0
8 Tyus Jones PHX 9.1 2.4 4.6
9 Bol Bol PHX 8.8 4.1 1.1
10 Mason Plumlee PHX 8.0 6.6 1.4
11 Jaxson Hayes LAL 8.0 5.4 1.0
12 Gabe Vincent LAL 7.7 1.7 1.7
13 Vasilije Micic PHX 7.6 2.1 3.0
14 Royce O'Neale PHX 7.5 3.3 2.3
15 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 7.2 3.8 1.2
16 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 6.6 5.2 1.7
17 Cody Martin PHX 6.2 3.6 2.0
18 Jordan Goodwin LAL 6.2 3.5 1.3
19 Shake Milton LAL 4.8 2.0 1.2
20 Ryan Dunn PHX 4.5 2.3 0.7
21 Markieff Morris LAL 3.9 1.3 1.0
22 Collin Gillespie PHX 3.8 1.6 1.5
23 Christian Koloko LAL 3.8 2.7 1.0
24 Bronny James LAL 3.8 1.3 0.8
25 Cam Reddish LAL 3.7 1.7 0.8
26 Damion Lee PHX 3.6 1.1 0.6
27 Oso Ighodaro PHX 3.3 2.5 0.7
28 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 3.0 1.5 0.9
29 Alex Len LAL 2.7 2.1 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.