NBA games

WSH @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
126–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH30333231126
DEN44282328123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home DEN
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alex Sarr S 32 34 6 5
Jordan Poole S 30 19 0 6
Kyshawn George S 40 19 7 5
Justin Champagnie S 39 16 13 2
Khris Middleton S 20 10 4 4
Bub Carrington 30 9 4 7
AJ Johnson 18 9 2 4
Richaun Holmes 16 6 6 0
Corey Kispert 15 4 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 39 40 13 9
Jamal Murray S 37 24 6 7
Russell Westbrook S 37 22 4 11
Michael Porter Jr. S 37 20 11 1
Christian Braun S 35 9 3 4
Zeke Nnaji 21 6 1 2
Peyton Watson 23 2 3 3
Jalen Pickett 9 0 1 3
Vlatko Cancar 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alex Sarr · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Alex Sarr makes 3-foot two point shot (Khris Middleton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Christian Braun DEN
14%
2 Jordan Poole WSH
13%
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
13%
4 Jamal Murray DEN
13%
5 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
6 Kyshawn George WSH
10%
7 Khris Middleton WSH
9%
8 Alex Sarr WSH
9%
9 Justin Champagnie WSH
8%
10 Corey Kispert WSH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
27%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 31.4 13.5 10.8
2 Jamal Murray DEN 23.1 3.9 6.2
3 Jordan Poole WSH 22.1 4.3 4.2
4 Christian Braun DEN 18.9 5.5 3.6
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 16.1 7.9 2.1
6 Russell Westbrook DEN 15.0 5.3 4.9
7 Alex Sarr WSH 14.0 6.3 2.8
8 Khris Middleton WSH 13.9 4.2 4.4
9 Kyshawn George WSH 12.3 4.7 3.7
10 Bub Carrington WSH 11.9 4.0 4.8
11 Corey Kispert WSH 11.1 3.0 2.1
12 Richaun Holmes WSH 10.4 7.8 2.2
13 Marcus Smart WSH 9.7 2.3 2.8
14 Justin Champagnie WSH 7.7 6.0 1.4
15 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 7.0 3.5 0.9
16 Peyton Watson DEN 6.3 3.1 1.4
17 Zeke Nnaji DEN 5.7 3.0 0.8
18 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.6 1.7 1.1
19 Dario Saric DEN 4.1 2.9 1.5
20 Vlatko Cancar DEN 3.7 1.8 0.9
21 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.6 1.5 0.6
22 AJ Johnson WSH 3.0 1.1 1.4
23 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.6 4.4 0.5
24 PJ Hall DEN 2.6 1.8 0.6
25 Anthony Gill WSH 1.9 0.8 0.4
26 Colby Jones WSH 1.8 1.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.