NBA games

NY @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
94–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY3119222294
GS3222212297

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home GS
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 30 29 12 3
OG Anunoby S 38 23 9 2
Miles McBride S 38 19 5 4
Mikal Bridges S 38 19 6 3
Landry Shamet 21 2 3 0
Mitchell Robinson 16 2 5 0
Precious Achiuwa 10 0 1 0
Cameron Payne 10 0 1 1
Josh Hart S 39 0 7 7
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 35 28 7 5
Moses Moody S 33 18 1 1
Jimmy Butler III S 33 11 6 7
Jonathan Kuminga 20 10 5 5
Draymond Green S 32 9 4 3
Gary Payton II 25 6 4 2
Gui Santos S 21 5 7 0
Quinten Post 19 5 6 2
Buddy Hield 15 3 2 0
Kevon Looney 6 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes 6-foot driving dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III GS
14%
2 Mikal Bridges NY
12%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
12%
4 Josh Hart NY
11%
5 OG Anunoby NY
10%
6 Draymond Green GS
9%
7 Moses Moody GS
8%
8 Stephen Curry GS
8%
9 Miles McBride NY
8%
10 Quinten Post GS
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
21%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
26%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 26.5 4.3 6.5
2 Jonathan Kuminga GS 20.6 6.1 3.1
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 20.0 10.2 2.4
4 OG Anunoby NY 17.4 4.8 3.1
5 Mikal Bridges NY 17.2 3.5 4.6
6 Jimmy Butler III GS 16.3 5.1 5.8
7 Josh Hart NY 14.2 9.6 4.9
8 Draymond Green GS 13.7 7.1 6.2
9 Moses Moody GS 11.7 3.6 1.5
10 Buddy Hield GS 10.5 3.1 2.4
11 Miles McBride NY 9.8 3.1 2.9
12 Quinten Post GS 9.3 4.9 1.4
13 Gary Payton II GS 8.8 3.4 1.5
14 Precious Achiuwa NY 7.5 5.5 1.0
15 Gui Santos GS 6.8 3.9 2.0
16 Landry Shamet NY 5.3 1.4 0.6
17 Cameron Payne NY 4.9 1.3 1.9
18 Kevon Looney GS 4.9 5.0 0.9
19 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.5 3.7 0.6
20 Kevin Knox II GS 2.8 1.3 0.3
21 Pat Spencer GS 2.8 1.8 0.6
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.5 1.8 0.6
23 Delon Wright NY 2.2 1.1 1.3
24 Anton Watson NY 1.7 0.8 0.8
25 Tyler Kolek NY 1.4 0.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.