NBA games

NO @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
115–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO23352532115
SA22363427119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home SA
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 33 26 7 9
Trey Murphy III S 37 20 6 3
Bruce Brown S 32 19 6 6
Kelly Olynyk S 31 14 6 7
Karlo Matkovic S 27 12 11 0
Mo Bamba 12 8 6 0
Jose Alvarado 28 7 0 5
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 16 6 8 2
Antonio Reeves 6 3 1 0
Jordan Hawkins 18 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 36 22 5 1
Harrison Barnes S 27 19 4 0
Keldon Johnson 30 19 5 2
Stephon Castle S 36 17 1 7
Jeremy Sochan 31 14 5 4
Julian Champagnie 25 12 4 3
Sandro Mamukelashvili 12 10 7 1
Chris Paul S 22 4 3 6
Bismack Biyombo S 12 2 2 1
Blake Wesley 10 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bruce Brown · Layup (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Bruce Brown makes 1-foot layup (Kelly Olynyk assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephon Castle SA
13%
2 Trey Murphy III NO
12%
3 Yves Missi NO
10%
4 Devin Vassell SA
9%
5 Kelly Olynyk NO
8%
6 Bismack Biyombo SA
8%
7 CJ McCollum NO
8%
8 Karlo Matkovic NO
8%
9 Bruce Brown NO
8%
10 Harrison Barnes SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
30%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trey Murphy III NO 21.8 5.0 4.0
2 Stephon Castle SA 20.9 4.7 4.3
3 Devin Vassell SA 19.9 5.4 3.9
4 CJ McCollum NO 17.4 3.9 5.3
5 Keldon Johnson SA 15.8 5.0 2.2
6 Harrison Barnes SA 12.5 2.9 1.7
7 Jordan Hawkins NO 12.4 3.8 2.0
8 Kelly Olynyk NO 11.2 6.7 3.3
9 Yves Missi NO 10.9 8.1 1.2
10 Jeremy Sochan SA 10.6 6.1 2.1
11 Jose Alvarado NO 10.1 2.8 4.9
12 Karlo Matkovic NO 9.9 6.2 1.5
13 Chris Paul SA 9.1 2.2 6.3
14 Julian Champagnie SA 7.1 3.1 1.3
15 Bruce Brown NO 6.8 3.4 2.3
16 Bismack Biyombo SA 6.4 5.9 1.5
17 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 6.0 2.8 1.0
18 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 5.4 2.5 1.0
19 Mo Bamba NO 5.3 5.1 0.8
20 Antonio Reeves NO 5.1 1.9 1.1
21 Blake Wesley SA 4.1 1.4 1.5
22 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.2 1.2 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.