NBA games

IND @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
119–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND30302237119
MIL38273526126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home MIL
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Nesmith S 36 30 4 2
Pascal Siakam S 39 26 7 2
Tyrese Haliburton S 37 24 6 15
Myles Turner S 30 14 4 2
Obi Toppin 23 8 3 3
Andrew Nembhard S 32 7 3 2
Bennedict Mathurin 12 6 1 0
T.J. McConnell 16 4 1 2
Thomas Bryant 5 0 1 0
Ben Sheppard 12 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 35 34 10 7
Damian Lillard S 37 25 10 8
Kevin Porter Jr. 19 16 6 4
Taurean Prince S 35 14 3 1
Gary Trent Jr. 23 13 4 3
Brook Lopez S 33 10 2 1
Kyle Kuzma S 32 8 8 0
AJ Green 15 6 1 3
Jericho Sims 11 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Damian Lillard · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Damian Lillard makes free throw 1 of 3"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
14%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
12%
3 Myles Turner IND
11%
4 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
5 Aaron Nesmith IND
10%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
10%
7 Kyle Kuzma MIL
9%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
9 Tyrese Haliburton IND
7%
10 Taurean Prince MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
61%
Jumper
9%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 28.4 12.4 6.8
2 Damian Lillard MIL 24.6 4.3 6.3
3 Pascal Siakam IND 22.9 6.6 3.7
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 21.8 3.6 10.9
5 Myles Turner IND 16.8 5.6 2.1
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.0 3.8 2.6
7 Brook Lopez MIL 14.6 6.1 2.0
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 14.4 4.3 1.8
9 Kyle Kuzma MIL 13.9 6.2 2.0
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 11.0 2.6 1.6
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.7 3.0 5.8
12 Taurean Prince MIL 9.4 3.6 2.2
13 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 9.4 3.0 3.5
14 T.J. McConnell IND 8.5 2.1 4.3
15 Obi Toppin IND 7.3 3.0 1.2
16 AJ Green MIL 7.3 2.4 1.8
17 Thomas Bryant IND 6.4 3.6 0.8
18 Ben Sheppard IND 6.1 3.4 1.4
19 Ryan Rollins MIL 6.1 2.3 1.7
20 Jericho Sims MIL 4.3 5.6 1.0
21 Quenton Jackson IND 3.6 1.4 1.2
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.4 1.7 0.9
23 Pat Connaughton MIL 3.2 1.7 1.1
24 Tony Bradley IND 2.6 1.6 0.5
25 Enrique Freeman IND 2.5 1.4 0.5
26 Chris Livingston MIL 2.5 1.8 0.6
27 Tyler Smith MIL 2.4 1.3 0.5
28 Jarace Walker IND 2.1 1.2 0.7
29 James Johnson IND 1.4 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.