NBA games

MIA @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
91–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA2721192491
MEM38253131125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home MEM
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kel'el Ware S 36 19 11 1
Bam Adebayo S 30 18 6 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 27 13 5 3
Kyle Anderson 30 13 6 5
Tyler Herro S 22 8 2 7
Andrew Wiggins S 22 8 0 1
Terry Rozier 27 5 3 2
Pelle Larsson 14 4 2 2
Davion Mitchell 20 3 2 2
Duncan Robinson S 13 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 33 31 6 1
Desmond Bane S 30 22 10 8
Zach Edey S 27 12 8 1
Brandon Clarke 14 12 2 0
Scotty Pippen Jr. 29 11 6 11
Luke Kennard S 29 11 4 4
Jaylen Wells S 26 8 3 2
Lamar Stevens 19 7 5 1
Cam Spencer 18 6 2 3
GG Jackson 8 5 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:55 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyler Herro MIA
14%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
3 Andrew Wiggins MIA
12%
4 Desmond Bane MEM
11%
5 Zach Edey MEM
10%
6 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
7 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
7%
9 Kevin Love MIA
7%
10 Duncan Robinson MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
27%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 23.3 4.6 6.5
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 23.0 9.9 5.2
3 Desmond Bane MEM 21.9 7.5 6.2
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA 21.8 4.9 3.8
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 17.0 4.7 2.1
6 Duncan Robinson MIA 14.8 3.0 2.8
7 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.0 3.0 5.4
8 Luke Kennard MEM 10.9 2.8 3.4
9 Brandon Clarke MEM 10.1 6.5 1.4
10 Kel'el Ware MIA 9.3 8.7 1.6
11 Jaylen Wells MEM 9.0 3.5 1.9
12 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 9.0 3.0 3.5
13 Zach Edey MEM 8.7 7.7 1.0
14 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.4 3.4 1.9
15 Terry Rozier MIA 7.0 2.5 1.9
16 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 6.0 2.9 1.5
17 Marvin Bagley III MEM 5.9 3.6 0.7
18 GG Jackson MEM 5.7 2.7 1.4
19 Pelle Larsson MIA 5.3 1.6 1.1
20 Lamar Stevens MEM 4.6 3.3 0.8
21 Cam Spencer MEM 4.3 1.6 1.1
22 Kyle Anderson MIA 4.1 3.0 1.6
23 Jay Huff MEM 3.8 1.7 0.7
24 Kevin Love MIA 3.3 2.8 0.5
25 John Konchar MEM 2.6 1.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.