NBA games

CHI @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
114–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI29361831114
HOU22382532117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home HOU
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 39 23 7 4
Tre Jones S 33 19 2 6
Nikola Vucevic S 29 15 7 3
Dalen Terry 13 11 1 3
Matas Buzelis S 19 10 3 1
Patrick Williams 23 10 3 1
Kevin Huerter S 34 9 1 4
Julian Phillips 19 8 1 1
Zach Collins 19 5 5 0
Jalen Smith 12 4 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 38 28 6 3
Alperen Sengun S 37 24 15 4
Fred VanVleet S 35 23 4 7
Dillon Brooks S 33 13 5 3
Jabari Smith Jr. S 32 12 9 1
Jae'Sean Tate 20 7 4 1
Steven Adams 22 4 9 3
Aaron Holiday 12 4 1 0
Jeff Green 10 2 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dillon Brooks · Layup (2 pts) · 10:57 Q1
"Dillon Brooks makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
3 Coby White CHI
12%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
5 Jalen Green HOU
9%
6 Tari Eason HOU
9%
7 Matas Buzelis CHI
8%
8 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
9 Tre Jones CHI
7%
10 Kevin Huerter CHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
29%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Coby White CHI 25.2 4.6 4.4
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 23.4 10.9 5.9
3 Jalen Green HOU 20.9 5.8 5.0
4 Tari Eason HOU 17.1 6.5 2.8
5 Dillon Brooks HOU 15.7 4.1 2.5
6 Amen Thompson HOU 14.9 9.6 4.6
7 Nikola Vucevic CHI 14.5 8.8 3.0
8 Zach Collins CHI 13.8 9.5 2.8
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.6 6.8 1.5
10 Matas Buzelis CHI 12.5 4.4 2.3
11 Fred VanVleet HOU 12.5 3.4 4.7
12 Kevin Huerter CHI 11.9 3.2 2.2
13 Tre Jones CHI 11.9 3.7 4.2
14 Patrick Williams CHI 8.9 3.7 1.5
15 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.6 2.0 1.6
16 Jalen Smith CHI 6.4 4.5 0.8
17 Julian Phillips CHI 6.0 2.8 1.1
18 Jeff Green HOU 5.9 2.5 1.0
19 Cam Whitmore HOU 5.6 2.2 1.2
20 Jock Landale HOU 5.1 3.5 0.8
21 Dalen Terry CHI 4.2 1.4 1.1
22 Nate Williams HOU 4.0 1.5 0.8
23 Reed Sheppard HOU 4.0 1.3 1.2
24 Steven Adams HOU 3.9 5.4 1.6
25 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 3.8 1.6 1.0
26 Jevon Carter CHI 3.2 0.9 1.2
27 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.2 2.5 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.