NBA games

OKC @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
113–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC24313622113
DET23312330107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home DET
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 38 48 4 6
Cason Wallace S 36 20 5 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 31 12 10 5
Isaiah Joe 33 11 4 1
Kenrich Williams S 31 10 5 1
Luguentz Dort S 27 7 7 1
Alex Caruso 21 3 0 1
Jaylin Williams 17 2 8 1
Dillon Jones 4 0 1 1
Ousmane Dieng 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tobias Harris S 34 18 7 0
Dennis Schroder 27 17 3 11
Malik Beasley 28 15 0 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 32 11 1 0
Cade Cunningham S 29 11 7 9
Isaiah Stewart 18 9 7 0
Ausar Thompson S 21 8 4 1
Jalen Duren S 29 8 5 2
Ronald Holland II 10 6 3 2
Simone Fontecchio 13 4 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
23%
2 Jalen Duren DET
12%
3 Tobias Harris DET
11%
4 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC
9%
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
9%
8 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Malik Beasley DET
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
22%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 33.4 5.2 7.2
2 Cade Cunningham DET 27.0 5.4 9.3
3 Tobias Harris DET 16.9 6.9 2.6
4 Jalen Duren DET 14.1 11.5 2.1
5 Malik Beasley DET 13.6 2.8 1.8
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC 13.2 4.7 1.9
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 11.6 7.9 3.1
8 Cason Wallace OKC 11.3 3.4 2.8
9 Dennis Schroder DET 11.2 3.2 4.7
10 Ausar Thompson DET 10.7 5.5 2.3
11 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 10.3 3.4 1.8
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.6 3.8 1.5
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.2 2.4 1.6
14 Alex Caruso OKC 6.9 2.5 1.8
15 Isaiah Stewart DET 6.3 4.7 1.6
16 Ronald Holland II DET 5.8 2.6 1.1
17 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.5 2.2 1.2
18 Simone Fontecchio DET 5.5 2.5 1.2
19 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.7 2.4 1.0
20 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.0 3.3 1.4
21 Marcus Sasser DET 4.0 1.0 2.0
22 Paul Reed DET 3.2 2.9 0.6
23 Dillon Jones OKC 2.5 1.1 0.8
24 Lindy Waters III DET 2.2 0.8 0.5
25 Adam Flagler OKC 1.7 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.