NBA games

BOS @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
115–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS30332329115
BKN27243032113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home BKN
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kristaps Porzingis S 32 24 2 0
Payton Pritchard 33 22 6 3
Jayson Tatum S 36 20 8 8
Sam Hauser S 28 11 2 1
Jrue Holiday S 38 11 5 12
Luke Kornet 25 10 8 1
Jaylen Brown S 24 8 6 3
Neemias Queta 13 6 1 0
Baylor Scheierman 11 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cameron Johnson S 35 23 10 6
Keon Johnson S 31 21 6 2
Jalen Wilson 25 15 0 1
Maxwell Lewis 16 15 2 1
Ziaire Williams S 35 14 5 2
D'Angelo Russell S 27 11 3 8
Day'Ron Sharpe S 31 9 16 5
Tyrese Martin 23 5 1 6
Reece Beekman 19 0 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
D'Angelo Russell · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"D'Angelo Russell makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cam Thomas BKN
16%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
13%
3 Cameron Johnson BKN
13%
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
11%
5 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
6 Ziaire Williams BKN
9%
7 Luke Kornet BOS
9%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
9%
9 D'Angelo Russell BKN
8%
10 Tyrese Martin BKN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
42%
Jumper
22%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.9 8.8 7.6
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.6 6.2 4.6
3 Cam Thomas BKN 23.4 3.8 4.9
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 19.0 5.6 2.7
5 Cameron Johnson BKN 18.8 4.6 3.9
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 14.0 3.5 2.7
7 D'Angelo Russell BKN 12.2 3.0 4.0
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 11.1 3.9 3.2
9 Ziaire Williams BKN 11.1 4.4 1.4
10 Tyrese Martin BKN 10.4 3.3 1.8
11 Keon Johnson BKN 9.7 4.0 2.3
12 Trendon Watford BKN 9.2 4.2 3.4
13 Sam Hauser BOS 8.3 3.3 1.0
14 Noah Clowney BKN 8.2 3.7 1.0
15 Jalen Wilson BKN 7.8 2.3 1.3
16 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 7.1 6.4 1.8
17 Luke Kornet BOS 6.2 5.3 1.6
18 Neemias Queta BOS 5.7 5.7 0.9
19 Torrey Craig BOS 4.7 2.5 0.7
20 JD Davison BOS 2.8 0.9 0.7
21 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.7 2.0 0.8
22 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.4 1.1 0.7
23 Reece Beekman BKN 2.1 1.0 0.8
24 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.4 0.8 0.3
25 Maxwell Lewis BKN 1.2 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.