NBA games

SAC @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
106–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC22352524106
PHX36263525122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home PHX
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 34 23 0 1
Zach LaVine S 36 21 3 2
Malik Monk S 42 18 8 5
Keegan Murray S 37 14 8 2
Domantas Sabonis S 30 12 11 12
Keon Ellis 22 7 1 1
Jonas Valanciunas 12 6 5 2
Jake LaRavia 16 3 2 0
Isaac Jones 1 2 1 0
Markelle Fultz 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 36 22 4 6
Devin Booker S 37 22 4 13
Tyus Jones 24 20 2 4
Ryan Dunn S 33 16 5 3
Bradley Beal S 26 15 3 2
Oso Ighodaro 32 11 6 1
Royce O'Neale 21 9 3 1
Collin Gillespie 11 5 1 2
Mason Plumlee S 16 2 5 1
TyTy Washington Jr. 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 10-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
12%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC
10%
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC
9%
5 Malik Monk SAC
9%
6 Jonas Valanciunas SAC
8%
7 Mason Plumlee PHX
8%
8 Bradley Beal PHX
8%
9 Keegan Murray SAC
7%
10 Zach LaVine SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
47%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 24.9 4.3 7.5
2 Kevin Durant PHX 24.5 6.4 5.2
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 24.2 4.5 6.5
4 Zach LaVine SAC 23.9 4.3 4.3
5 Bradley Beal PHX 21.3 4.1 5.7
6 Malik Monk SAC 17.8 3.9 6.6
7 Domantas Sabonis SAC 16.2 11.0 5.2
8 Keegan Murray SAC 12.8 4.5 1.6
9 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 11.8 9.6 2.6
10 Keon Ellis SAC 9.9 2.8 1.8
11 Bol Bol PHX 9.3 4.2 1.3
12 Mason Plumlee PHX 8.0 6.3 1.5
13 Royce O'Neale PHX 7.9 3.5 2.5
14 Vasilije Micic PHX 7.7 2.1 3.2
15 Tyus Jones PHX 7.6 2.3 4.9
16 Jake LaRavia SAC 6.4 2.7 1.5
17 Cody Martin PHX 6.4 3.6 2.1
18 Devin Carter SAC 4.7 1.9 1.1
19 Damion Lee PHX 4.3 1.3 0.7
20 Collin Gillespie PHX 4.1 1.5 1.6
21 Isaac Jones SAC 4.0 1.6 0.8
22 Markelle Fultz SAC 3.6 1.2 1.0
23 Doug McDermott SAC 3.4 0.9 0.6
24 Ryan Dunn PHX 3.3 1.8 0.6
25 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 2.9 1.3 1.0
26 Isaiah Crawford SAC 2.7 1.2 0.6
27 Oso Ighodaro PHX 2.6 1.9 0.8
28 Skal Labissiere SAC 2.2 0.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.