NBA games

TOR @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
126–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR33233535126
UTAH26323030118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home UTAH
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 24 20 10 3
Immanuel Quickley S 25 20 5 5
A.J. Lawson 24 18 5 0
RJ Barrett S 25 17 2 5
Orlando Robinson 34 14 10 5
Colin Castleton S 24 13 7 2
Jamal Shead 27 11 2 5
Jamison Battle S 36 7 6 0
Garrett Temple 20 6 4 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Clarkson 23 19 2 3
Kyle Filipowski S 33 18 11 3
Isaiah Collier S 36 16 5 8
Lauri Markkanen S 19 16 5 0
Johnny Juzang 24 14 4 1
Brice Sensabaugh 21 13 1 0
Collin Sexton S 20 8 1 2
Jaden Springer 17 6 1 3
Cody Williams S 26 6 4 0
KJ Martin 21 2 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Lauri Markkanen · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Lauri Markkanen makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
2 Collin Sexton UTAH
10%
3 Brandon Ingram TOR
9%
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
8%
5 RJ Barrett TOR
8%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
8%
7 Walker Kessler UTAH
8%
8 Isaiah Collier UTAH
7%
9 Immanuel Quickley TOR
7%
10 Colin Castleton TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
34%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 24.3 6.2 6.3
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 23.4 5.1 7.6
3 Immanuel Quickley TOR 22.0 4.4 5.7
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.8 8.4 5.4
5 Collin Sexton UTAH 19.9 3.5 5.4
6 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 18.7 3.2 3.9
7 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 17.7 5.7 1.5
8 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 16.6 7.7 3.0
9 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 14.0 3.7 2.2
10 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.3 7.5 3.7
11 Walker Kessler UTAH 12.9 12.3 1.8
12 Isaiah Collier UTAH 12.2 3.6 6.1
13 Orlando Robinson TOR 10.4 7.0 2.5
14 A.J. Lawson TOR 8.6 2.9 1.2
15 Jamal Shead TOR 8.4 2.5 4.5
16 Johnny Juzang UTAH 8.2 3.3 0.8
17 KJ Martin UTAH 7.8 3.7 1.5
18 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 7.5 2.5 2.0
19 Cody Williams UTAH 7.2 2.9 1.5
20 Chris Boucher TOR 6.4 3.7 0.8
21 Jamison Battle TOR 6.2 2.8 0.9
22 Colin Castleton TOR 5.0 4.5 1.1
23 Garrett Temple TOR 3.2 1.3 1.4
24 Jaden Springer UTAH 2.2 1.1 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.