NBA games

LAL @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
126–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL40273227126
DEN32393129131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home DEN
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Austin Reaves S 39 37 8 13
Dalton Knecht S 37 32 2 1
Shake Milton 28 16 5 3
Jordan Goodwin S 34 10 6 2
Jarred Vanderbilt S 24 9 7 7
Christian Koloko 20 8 7 2
Markieff Morris 24 7 5 3
Bronny James 16 5 2 0
Alex Len S 12 2 5 1
Cam Reddish 7 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 38 28 7 5
Jamal Murray S 39 26 4 5
Christian Braun S 35 22 5 6
Russell Westbrook 28 17 6 7
Aaron Gordon S 31 17 7 4
Michael Porter Jr. S 33 13 4 2
Zeke Nnaji 17 4 5 0
Peyton Watson 16 4 1 1
Jalen Pickett 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Layup (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 2-foot two point shot (Christian Braun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
12%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
11%
5 Christian Braun DEN
11%
6 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
7 Russell Westbrook DEN
8%
8 Alex Len LAL
8%
9 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL
7%
10 Gabe Vincent LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
27%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.3 11.7 9.4
2 Jamal Murray DEN 22.8 3.3 6.3
3 Austin Reaves LAL 20.5 4.3 4.6
4 Christian Braun DEN 16.1 4.9 3.1
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.2 8.1 2.0
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 14.4 4.3 3.6
7 Russell Westbrook DEN 14.3 4.9 4.1
8 Dalton Knecht LAL 9.3 3.0 1.3
9 Gabe Vincent LAL 7.9 1.8 1.7
10 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 7.5 4.0 1.2
11 Jordan Goodwin LAL 6.3 3.8 1.3
12 Peyton Watson DEN 6.2 3.3 1.3
13 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 6.1 4.6 1.3
14 Jalen Pickett DEN 5.6 1.7 1.7
15 Zeke Nnaji DEN 5.1 2.6 0.7
16 Cam Reddish LAL 4.2 2.1 1.0
17 Shake Milton LAL 4.1 2.0 1.2
18 Markieff Morris LAL 3.8 1.5 0.9
19 Christian Koloko LAL 3.7 2.5 1.0
20 Dario Saric DEN 3.6 2.7 1.5
21 Vlatko Cancar DEN 3.5 1.7 0.8
22 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.4 1.4 0.6
23 Alex Len LAL 2.8 1.9 0.8
24 PJ Hall DEN 2.4 1.7 0.5
25 Bronny James LAL 2.3 0.8 0.5
26 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.2 4.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.