NBA games

CHA @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
145–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA37444024145
SA26294039134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home SA
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 29 27 3 15
Nick Smith Jr. 27 26 3 5
Miles Bridges S 29 21 7 8
Josh Green S 28 20 1 3
Jusuf Nurkic 13 14 3 1
Mark Williams S 29 14 10 3
DaQuan Jeffries S 33 13 1 1
Seth Curry 19 5 2 2
Marcus Garrett 19 5 1 3
Wendell Moore Jr. 9 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephon Castle S 29 26 3 1
Devin Vassell S 31 22 3 3
Jeremy Sochan 16 14 4 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili 17 13 3 1
Julian Champagnie 20 12 5 2
Keldon Johnson 22 12 5 3
Blake Wesley 24 10 4 3
Harrison Barnes S 21 10 1 1
Malaki Branham 7 7 0 1
Chris Paul S 18 3 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Vassell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Devin Vassell makes 25-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mark Williams CHA
15%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
14%
3 Devin Vassell SA
13%
4 LaMelo Ball CHA
12%
5 Bismack Biyombo SA
12%
6 Chris Paul SA
9%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
8 DaQuan Jeffries CHA
8%
9 Josh Green CHA
7%
10 Moussa Diabate CHA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
21%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
38%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 26.1 8.8 4.5
2 LaMelo Ball CHA 20.3 4.9 6.9
3 Stephon Castle SA 19.7 4.4 4.3
4 Devin Vassell SA 18.7 5.3 3.8
5 Mark Williams CHA 16.2 11.2 2.1
6 Keldon Johnson SA 16.1 5.0 2.2
7 Harrison Barnes SA 12.5 3.1 1.8
8 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 11.7 2.7 2.9
9 Jeremy Sochan SA 10.8 6.1 2.2
10 Chris Paul SA 9.5 2.4 6.8
11 Julian Champagnie SA 7.5 3.0 1.4
12 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 7.3 7.4 2.9
13 Josh Green CHA 7.0 2.8 2.1
14 Bismack Biyombo SA 7.0 6.9 1.2
15 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 6.5 2.9 1.2
16 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.8 4.8 1.2
17 Seth Curry CHA 5.8 2.3 1.0
18 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.7 2.6 1.0
19 Wendell Moore Jr. CHA 4.6 2.1 0.9
20 Taj Gibson CHA 3.4 4.8 0.6
21 Blake Wesley SA 2.7 0.9 1.4
22 Harrison Ingram SA 2.6 2.1 0.7
23 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.1 0.6 0.8
24 Malaki Branham SA 1.9 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.