NBA games

ORL @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
111–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL30282924111
MIN33291640118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home MIN
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 37 43 10 3
Caleb Houstan 27 18 1 1
Franz Wagner S 34 16 4 4
Tristan da Silva S 22 8 3 0
Cory Joseph S 28 8 3 3
Anthony Black 20 6 4 2
Wendell Carter Jr. S 31 4 2 2
Jonathan Isaac 9 3 1 1
Gary Harris 21 3 1 1
Jett Howard 4 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 39 28 4 5
Julius Randle S 29 22 7 5
Donte DiVincenzo 30 14 3 5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 18 12 3 1
Rudy Gobert S 35 12 12 1
Jaden McDaniels S 32 11 8 2
Mike Conley S 24 9 1 3
Naz Reid 27 8 7 3
Jaylen Clark 5 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
14%
2 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
4 Julius Randle MIN
10%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
6 Anthony Edwards MIN
9%
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
8 Cole Anthony ORL
7%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
10 Cory Joseph ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
54%
Jumper
27%
Layup
11%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 27.4 6.6 4.6
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.1 6.5 5.4
3 Franz Wagner ORL 23.3 5.2 4.4
4 Julius Randle MIN 20.6 6.8 5.8
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 18.9 7.6 3.4
6 Naz Reid MIN 16.6 8.4 3.1
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.5 11.1 2.2
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 15.0 4.4 4.5
9 Cole Anthony ORL 13.4 4.6 3.5
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 11.4 3.3 2.5
11 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.8 7.6 2.0
12 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 10.1 2.8 1.7
13 Mike Conley MIN 8.8 2.5 3.6
14 Anthony Black ORL 7.3 3.2 1.8
15 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 7.2 2.7 1.2
16 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.1 3.8 0.7
17 Tristan da Silva ORL 5.0 2.1 1.1
18 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.9 3.8 1.1
19 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.7 1.5 0.8
20 Cory Joseph ORL 4.4 1.6 1.1
21 Luka Garza MIN 4.4 2.3 0.7
22 Jett Howard ORL 4.3 1.7 1.3
23 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.9 1.5 0.6
24 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.6 1.6 1.6
25 Trevelin Queen ORL 3.4 2.1 0.6
26 Gary Harris ORL 2.4 1.3 0.6
27 Josh Minott MIN 2.4 1.6 0.5
28 Joe Ingles MIN 1.5 0.7 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.