NBA games

CLE @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
133–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE36393721133
MEM29293432124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home MEM
81% 19%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Evan Mobley S 32 22 11 3
Darius Garland S 30 20 2 9
De'Andre Hunter 23 18 5 1
Jarrett Allen S 25 16 6 3
Sam Merrill 22 14 1 2
Ty Jerome 17 12 2 5
Javonte Green 14 10 4 2
Max Strus S 22 9 4 5
Isaac Okoro S 21 7 3 2
Jaylon Tyson 4 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 35 44 8 7
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 28 13 3 0
Brandon Clarke 19 13 5 1
Desmond Bane S 26 12 6 3
Scotty Pippen Jr. 22 8 3 6
Jaylen Wells S 17 7 0 0
Lamar Stevens 15 7 5 1
Zach Edey S 11 6 3 1
GG Jackson 14 4 6 1
Vince Williams Jr. 18 3 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Max Strus · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Max Strus makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
14%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
10%
4 Desmond Bane MEM
10%
5 Darius Garland CLE
9%
6 Zach Edey MEM
9%
7 Jarrett Allen CLE
9%
8 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
9 GG Jackson MEM
6%
10 Max Strus CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
31%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ja Morant MEM 26.9 3.6 7.9
2 Desmond Bane MEM 21.6 7.5 6.1
3 Evan Mobley CLE 21.2 10.2 3.9
4 Darius Garland CLE 17.9 3.1 6.6
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 16.4 4.5 1.9
6 Ty Jerome CLE 14.5 3.4 2.9
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.2 9.3 1.8
8 De'Andre Hunter CLE 13.2 4.2 1.6
9 Luke Kennard MEM 11.6 2.9 3.5
10 Max Strus CLE 10.6 4.0 3.1
11 Jaylen Wells MEM 9.4 3.7 2.0
12 Brandon Clarke MEM 8.9 6.1 1.3
13 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 8.6 3.6 1.8
14 Zach Edey MEM 8.5 7.9 1.0
15 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 8.4 2.9 3.1
16 Sam Merrill CLE 6.1 2.6 1.1
17 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.7 2.9 0.9
18 GG Jackson MEM 5.7 2.3 1.4
19 Dean Wade CLE 4.8 2.5 1.1
20 Marvin Bagley III MEM 4.8 3.3 0.5
21 Javonte Green CLE 4.7 2.6 1.0
22 Lamar Stevens MEM 4.2 2.9 0.8
23 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.6 1.8 1.8
24 Jay Huff MEM 3.6 1.7 0.7
25 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.4 1.4 1.1
26 Cam Spencer MEM 3.3 1.2 0.8
27 Tristan Thompson CLE 1.8 2.2 0.6
28 John Konchar MEM 1.7 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.