NBA games

DAL @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
96–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL2524212696
HOU27353734133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home HOU
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Williams 26 25 4 2
Naji Marshall S 34 21 5 3
Spencer Dinwiddie 35 20 3 2
Kessler Edwards S 35 12 6 0
Caleb Martin 24 8 1 2
Klay Thompson S 26 5 9 3
Max Christie 34 2 4 0
Dante Exum S 7 2 0 0
Dwight Powell S 20 1 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tari Eason S 31 30 8 2
Jalen Green S 32 23 9 5
Alperen Sengun S 25 16 15 4
Aaron Holiday 16 13 3 4
Jabari Smith Jr. 24 13 8 2
Dillon Brooks S 28 12 2 3
Cam Whitmore 7 10 0 1
Fred VanVleet S 25 8 7 3
Jock Landale 23 6 5 0
Jae'Sean Tate 7 2 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
2 Jalen Green HOU
11%
3 Amen Thompson HOU
10%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
5 Tari Eason HOU
8%
6 Naji Marshall DAL
8%
7 Daniel Gafford DAL
7%
8 Klay Thompson DAL
7%
9 Dillon Brooks HOU
6%
10 Max Christie DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
17%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
26%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Alperen Sengun HOU 25.1 11.1 6.2
2 Jalen Green HOU 21.0 5.5 5.4
3 Naji Marshall DAL 19.8 7.1 4.3
4 Klay Thompson DAL 17.0 4.0 2.9
5 P.J. Washington DAL 15.7 8.5 2.9
6 Tari Eason HOU 15.6 6.5 2.6
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 15.5 4.6 2.6
8 Amen Thompson HOU 15.3 10.2 4.9
9 Daniel Gafford DAL 13.0 9.7 2.2
10 Fred VanVleet HOU 12.6 3.3 4.8
11 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.3 6.3 1.3
12 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 11.0 2.8 3.4
13 Brandon Williams DAL 10.3 2.6 3.2
14 Max Christie DAL 9.9 3.3 3.2
15 Kessler Edwards DAL 8.6 3.8 1.6
16 Dante Exum DAL 7.8 2.1 2.1
17 Caleb Martin DAL 7.8 3.9 2.3
18 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.9 2.0 1.4
19 Jeff Green HOU 6.7 2.6 1.1
20 Cam Whitmore HOU 6.0 2.6 1.2
21 Jock Landale HOU 5.5 3.4 0.8
22 Dwight Powell DAL 4.6 3.3 1.1
23 Steven Adams HOU 4.6 5.7 1.7
24 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.3 1.1 0.8
25 Reed Sheppard HOU 4.3 1.4 1.2
26 Nate Williams HOU 4.1 1.5 0.9
27 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.6 2.2 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.