NBA games

LAC @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
121–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC24293533121
ATL263582998

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home ATL
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 36 25 6 2
James Harden S 36 25 8 7
Ivica Zubac S 30 18 6 2
Derrick Jones Jr. 23 14 2 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 21 12 3 3
Amir Coffey 23 12 1 3
Nicolas Batum S 23 11 7 2
Ben Simmons 17 2 2 4
Cam Christie 2 2 1 1
Kobe Brown 2 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Onyeka Okongwu S 32 18 10 3
Trae Young S 34 17 4 7
Zaccharie Risacher S 36 15 7 1
Caris LeVert 21 12 4 2
Dominick Barlow 16 10 4 0
Terance Mann 27 9 3 4
Dyson Daniels S 31 6 6 5
Vit Krejci 17 6 2 2
Mouhamed Gueye S 11 5 4 0
Georges Niang 13 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kawhi Leonard · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Kawhi Leonard makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
12%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
3 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
10%
4 Dyson Daniels ATL
10%
5 Ivica Zubac LAC
9%
6 Kawhi Leonard LAC
9%
7 James Harden LAC
8%
8 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC
7%
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
37%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 27.2 3.1 11.3
2 James Harden LAC 26.1 5.4 10.1
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC 23.7 5.9 4.0
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 20.7 11.0 3.1
5 Jalen Johnson ATL 18.1 10.0 4.5
6 Dyson Daniels ATL 17.3 5.9 5.4
7 Caris LeVert ATL 17.1 3.5 2.8
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 16.0 9.9 2.7
9 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 14.7 4.2 3.8
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 12.9 4.4 1.9
11 Georges Niang ATL 12.6 4.2 2.1
12 Terance Mann ATL 11.5 3.5 2.5
13 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 10.3 3.1 1.2
14 Kris Dunn LAC 9.6 3.6 4.0
15 Amir Coffey LAC 9.4 2.3 1.5
16 Vit Krejci ATL 9.2 3.6 2.2
17 Nicolas Batum LAC 7.0 2.9 1.2
18 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.2 3.2 1.0
19 Ben Simmons LAC 5.6 4.0 5.1
20 Dominick Barlow ATL 4.9 2.5 0.7
21 Drew Eubanks LAC 3.7 2.8 0.7
22 Patty Mills LAC 3.7 1.4 0.8
23 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.6 1.8 0.6
24 Kobe Brown LAC 2.9 1.5 0.7
25 Jordan Miller LAC 2.9 1.7 0.7
26 Cam Christie LAC 2.1 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.