NBA games

IND @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
112–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND18293134112
PHI26252425100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home PHI
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 29 27 7 4
Myles Turner S 28 18 7 1
Aaron Nesmith S 28 16 3 2
Tyrese Haliburton S 31 14 5 10
Obi Toppin 25 11 8 3
T.J. McConnell 17 8 2 0
Thomas Bryant 13 6 6 1
Bennedict Mathurin 15 5 1 1
Andrew Nembhard S 33 5 2 7
Ben Sheppard 16 2 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jeff Dowtin Jr. S 40 24 5 4
Jared Butler S 33 17 3 4
Adem Bona S 34 16 9 0
Ricky Council IV S 37 14 4 0
Oshae Brissett 23 14 1 0
Alex Reese 19 5 3 0
Guerschon Yabusele S 36 5 15 2
Jalen Hood-Schifino 20 5 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jeff Dowtin Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Jeff Dowtin Jr. makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Jared Butler assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
13%
2 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
4 Aaron Nesmith IND
10%
5 Andre Drummond PHI
9%
6 Myles Turner IND
9%
7 Justin Edwards PHI
8%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
9 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
10 Jared Butler PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
36%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 23.0 7.1 3.5
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND 22.6 3.5 11.2
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 20.8 3.5 6.0
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 20.2 4.7 2.2
5 Myles Turner IND 17.8 5.7 2.4
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 17.0 4.3 2.7
7 Aaron Nesmith IND 15.4 4.6 1.9
8 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.6 3.3 5.9
9 Justin Edwards PHI 9.9 3.5 1.7
10 Andre Drummond PHI 8.8 8.0 1.5
11 Jared Butler PHI 8.7 3.3 4.6
12 T.J. McConnell IND 8.5 2.3 5.1
13 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 8.1 2.1 2.1
14 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 8.0 4.3 1.9
15 Obi Toppin IND 7.7 3.0 1.6
16 Ricky Council IV PHI 7.0 2.5 1.7
17 Thomas Bryant IND 6.6 3.5 0.9
18 Ben Sheppard IND 6.3 3.4 1.5
19 Adem Bona PHI 6.0 5.1 0.7
20 Jalen Hood-Schifino PHI 5.5 2.4 3.1
21 Alex Reese PHI 3.9 3.3 0.7
22 Quenton Jackson IND 3.7 1.7 1.6
23 Jarace Walker IND 2.8 1.5 1.0
24 Tony Bradley IND 2.7 1.6 0.6
25 Johnny Furphy IND 2.1 1.7 0.5
26 James Johnson IND 2.1 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.