NBA games

BOS @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
103–91
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS30202825103
MIA2327271491

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home MIA
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 37 28 4 5
Jrue Holiday S 35 25 4 3
Derrick White S 37 18 5 4
Payton Pritchard 27 11 3 0
Al Horford S 32 9 9 5
Sam Hauser 21 6 3 0
Luke Kornet S 22 4 4 1
Neemias Queta 23 2 8 0
Jordan Walsh 7 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 37 23 4 3
Tyler Herro S 38 19 5 6
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 31 13 5 3
Davion Mitchell 35 12 9 4
Bam Adebayo S 33 9 9 2
Kel'el Ware 15 7 3 0
Duncan Robinson S 26 6 3 0
Pelle Larsson 16 2 0 0
Haywood Highsmith 9 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Wiggins · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Andrew Wiggins makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyler Herro MIA
17%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
11%
3 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
9%
5 Bam Adebayo MIA
8%
6 Kel'el Ware MIA
8%
7 Al Horford BOS
7%
8 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
9 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
10 Kevin Love MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
40%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.1 8.6 6.9
2 Tyler Herro MIA 24.4 4.8 6.4
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.7 6.1 4.6
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.3 9.3 4.9
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA 20.8 4.8 3.3
6 Derrick White BOS 18.4 4.5 5.3
7 Duncan Robinson MIA 14.0 3.0 2.9
8 Payton Pritchard BOS 12.9 3.5 2.7
9 Al Horford BOS 11.2 7.3 2.1
10 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.1 2.7 4.9
11 Kel'el Ware MIA 9.8 8.7 1.5
12 Jrue Holiday BOS 9.2 3.9 3.1
13 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.0 3.4 2.0
14 Sam Hauser BOS 7.6 3.0 1.1
15 Terry Rozier MIA 7.2 2.6 1.8
16 Alec Burks MIA 6.5 3.3 1.2
17 Luke Kornet BOS 5.9 5.0 1.6
18 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 5.6 3.0 1.3
19 Pelle Larsson MIA 5.1 1.7 1.0
20 Neemias Queta BOS 4.7 4.6 0.8
21 Torrey Craig BOS 4.7 2.4 0.7
22 Kyle Anderson MIA 3.8 3.0 1.6
23 Isaiah Stevens MIA 3.4 1.4 2.4
24 Kevin Love MIA 3.2 2.9 0.5
25 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.6 1.2 0.9
26 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.6 1.9 0.6
27 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.4 1.3 0.5
28 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.2 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.