NBA games

SAC @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
104–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC18333221104
GS30313534130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home GS
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 35 23 5 7
Keon Ellis 28 18 0 4
Zach LaVine S 32 14 1 3
Jake LaRavia 21 13 0 1
Trey Lyles 22 11 5 0
Malik Monk S 32 7 4 6
Keegan Murray S 34 6 4 2
Jonas Valanciunas S 14 5 9 0
Devin Carter 7 5 1 2
Isaac Jones 3 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Draymond Green S 29 23 4 4
Jonathan Kuminga 20 18 3 1
Moses Moody S 30 17 4 6
Buddy Hield 20 16 4 5
Stephen Curry S 30 11 2 5
Gary Payton II 21 11 4 2
Gui Santos 18 10 5 3
Quinten Post S 21 10 4 0
Jimmy Butler III S 28 6 5 7
Kevon Looney 17 6 6 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Draymond Green · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Draymond Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III GS
13%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
3 Malik Monk SAC
10%
4 Brandin Podziemski GS
10%
5 Zach LaVine SAC
10%
6 Jonas Valanciunas SAC
9%
7 Draymond Green GS
8%
8 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
9 Moses Moody GS
7%
10 Quinten Post GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
20%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 26.1 4.0 6.7
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 23.7 4.8 5.7
3 Zach LaVine SAC 23.7 4.4 3.9
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS 21.1 5.9 3.5
5 Malik Monk SAC 17.7 4.4 6.1
6 Jimmy Butler III GS 17.0 5.3 5.9
7 Keegan Murray SAC 13.3 5.2 1.5
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 12.7 5.0 3.0
9 Moses Moody GS 11.8 3.4 1.6
10 Draymond Green GS 11.7 7.2 6.8
11 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 11.3 9.8 2.6
12 Buddy Hield GS 10.3 3.0 2.3
13 Gary Payton II GS 9.2 2.9 1.5
14 Quinten Post GS 8.7 4.6 1.4
15 Keon Ellis SAC 8.3 3.1 1.4
16 Gui Santos GS 5.7 3.4 2.0
17 Trey Lyles SAC 4.9 3.3 1.6
18 Jake LaRavia SAC 4.7 2.8 1.2
19 Devin Carter SAC 4.2 2.0 1.0
20 Kevon Looney GS 4.1 4.4 0.9
21 Jae Crowder SAC 3.7 2.1 0.6
22 Isaac Jones SAC 3.6 1.6 0.7
23 Markelle Fultz SAC 3.2 1.3 0.9
24 Doug McDermott SAC 3.0 0.9 0.5
25 Isaiah Crawford SAC 2.4 1.5 0.4
26 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 1.8 1.2 0.4
27 Pat Spencer GS 1.7 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.