NBA games

BKN @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
110–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN30352718110
CHI31312034116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home CHI
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 33 24 6 10
Tyrese Martin 22 19 4 3
Nic Claxton S 34 18 14 5
Cameron Johnson S 35 16 6 1
Ziaire Williams S 30 11 4 1
Trendon Watford 18 7 3 3
Day'Ron Sharpe 14 7 6 3
D'Angelo Russell S 25 4 3 4
Keon Johnson 16 2 2 2
Jalen Wilson 13 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 36 31 7 4
Tre Jones S 36 18 6 6
Kevin Huerter S 33 18 9 3
Julian Phillips 34 16 7 5
Patrick Williams 23 10 2 1
Zach Collins 25 9 9 1
Nikola Vucevic S 23 7 3 3
Matas Buzelis S 15 6 3 1
Dalen Terry 11 1 1 0
Talen Horton-Tucker 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ziaire Williams · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Ziaire Williams makes 2-foot dunk (Cam Thomas assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Coby White CHI
14%
2 Cam Thomas BKN
12%
3 Cameron Johnson BKN
11%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
5 Ziaire Williams BKN
9%
6 Matas Buzelis CHI
9%
7 Tre Jones CHI
7%
8 Zach Collins CHI
7%
9 Killian Hayes BKN
7%
10 D'Angelo Russell BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
43%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Coby White CHI 23.7 4.4 4.6
2 Cam Thomas BKN 23.5 3.5 4.8
3 Cameron Johnson BKN 19.2 4.4 4.0
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 17.0 9.8 3.2
5 Zach Collins CHI 14.2 8.5 3.1
6 Matas Buzelis CHI 12.8 4.9 2.4
7 D'Angelo Russell BKN 12.6 3.1 4.7
8 Kevin Huerter CHI 12.0 3.0 2.4
9 Ziaire Williams BKN 11.4 4.4 1.6
10 Nic Claxton BKN 11.0 7.3 3.2
11 Keon Johnson BKN 10.9 4.3 2.7
12 Tre Jones CHI 10.5 3.4 3.7
13 Trendon Watford BKN 10.2 4.1 3.8
14 Killian Hayes BKN 9.5 2.5 4.6
15 Patrick Williams CHI 9.3 4.2 1.6
16 Tyrese Martin BKN 9.2 3.0 1.7
17 Noah Clowney BKN 8.8 3.8 1.1
18 Jalen Wilson BKN 8.1 2.3 1.4
19 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 7.8 6.7 1.8
20 Jalen Smith CHI 6.8 4.8 1.0
21 Julian Phillips CHI 5.4 2.7 0.9
22 Dalen Terry CHI 4.4 1.6 1.2
23 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 4.0 1.6 1.3
24 Jevon Carter CHI 3.9 1.3 1.5
25 Maxwell Lewis BKN 1.4 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.