NBA games

LAL @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
106–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL29341924106
MIL33383124126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home MIL
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 36 45 11 3
Austin Reaves S 36 28 8 3
Dalton Knecht 22 10 5 3
Gabe Vincent S 26 6 1 1
Dorian Finney-Smith S 30 5 1 0
Markieff Morris 12 4 1 2
Jarred Vanderbilt 15 4 3 1
Alex Len S 19 2 3 1
Christian Koloko 15 2 0 1
Jordan Goodwin 26 0 4 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 30 24 12 9
Brook Lopez S 30 23 4 5
Kevin Porter Jr. 17 22 3 1
Damian Lillard S 34 22 6 10
Gary Trent Jr. 24 16 0 1
Taurean Prince S 26 7 4 1
Kyle Kuzma S 31 5 4 0
Jericho Sims 18 4 11 1
AJ Green 21 3 0 2
Andre Jackson Jr. 2 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alex Len · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Alex Len makes 9-foot two point shot (Austin Reaves assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alex Len LAL
28%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
9%
3 Luka Doncic LAL
9%
4 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
9%
5 Kyle Kuzma MIL
8%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
8%
7 Taurean Prince MIL
7%
8 Brook Lopez MIL
6%
9 Dalton Knecht LAL
5%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
18%
Free Throw
2%
Jumper
40%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 27.5 11.8 6.2
2 Luka Doncic LAL 27.0 9.1 8.8
3 Damian Lillard MIL 22.9 4.4 5.9
4 Austin Reaves LAL 18.7 4.1 5.1
5 Kyle Kuzma MIL 14.4 6.4 2.3
6 Brook Lopez MIL 12.9 6.2 1.8
7 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 10.7 2.6 1.4
8 Taurean Prince MIL 9.6 3.5 2.2
9 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 8.6 2.8 3.6
10 Dalton Knecht LAL 8.0 2.7 1.1
11 AJ Green MIL 7.3 2.4 1.7
12 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 7.2 4.0 1.1
13 Gabe Vincent LAL 7.2 1.6 1.5
14 Jordan Goodwin LAL 6.3 3.6 1.1
15 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.4 4.5 1.1
16 Ryan Rollins MIL 5.3 1.9 1.7
17 Cam Reddish LAL 4.1 2.0 0.9
18 Jericho Sims MIL 4.1 4.7 0.9
19 Shake Milton LAL 3.6 1.6 1.3
20 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.5 1.6 0.9
21 Pete Nance MIL 2.8 1.5 0.6
22 Pat Connaughton MIL 2.8 1.6 1.0
23 Christian Koloko LAL 2.2 1.9 0.5
24 Markieff Morris LAL 2.1 0.8 0.5
25 Alex Len LAL 2.0 1.5 0.6
26 Chris Livingston MIL 2.0 1.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.