NBA games

WSH @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
129–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH31382733129
DET31313924125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home DET
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alex Sarr S 30 19 5 3
Jordan Poole S 24 17 6 4
Justin Champagnie S 33 17 9 1
Bub Carrington 27 16 4 3
Khris Middleton S 27 16 7 8
Marcus Smart 24 15 4 7
Corey Kispert 28 14 2 2
Kyshawn George S 29 9 4 1
Richaun Holmes 18 6 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 38 38 3 10
Jalen Duren S 30 18 14 0
Tobias Harris S 36 14 6 3
Dennis Schroder 20 11 2 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 28 10 3 1
Ausar Thompson S 19 10 4 1
Simone Fontecchio 10 9 2 1
Malik Beasley 29 8 2 2
Isaiah Stewart 18 4 1 2
Ronald Holland II 11 3 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cade Cunningham · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Cade Cunningham makes 8-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jordan Poole WSH
13%
2 Tobias Harris DET
12%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
4 Ausar Thompson DET
11%
5 Jalen Duren DET
11%
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
9%
7 Kyshawn George WSH
9%
8 Khris Middleton WSH
8%
9 Alex Sarr WSH
8%
10 Justin Champagnie WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
34%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 27.5 5.8 10.0
2 Jordan Poole WSH 22.6 4.2 4.0
3 Tobias Harris DET 16.5 7.0 2.3
4 Malik Beasley DET 14.6 3.3 2.0
5 Khris Middleton WSH 13.9 4.1 3.6
6 Jalen Duren DET 13.8 11.4 2.6
7 Alex Sarr WSH 12.8 6.2 2.3
8 Richaun Holmes WSH 11.7 7.3 1.8
9 Dennis Schroder DET 11.4 3.4 4.6
10 Kyshawn George WSH 10.9 5.2 3.5
11 Ausar Thompson DET 10.9 5.7 2.4
12 Corey Kispert WSH 10.8 2.9 1.8
13 Bub Carrington WSH 10.8 3.8 3.9
14 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 10.5 3.4 1.9
15 Marcus Smart WSH 8.5 1.9 2.1
16 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 7.6 3.8 1.0
17 Isaiah Stewart DET 6.3 5.6 1.4
18 Justin Champagnie WSH 6.1 5.1 1.1
19 Ronald Holland II DET 5.9 2.5 1.1
20 Simone Fontecchio DET 5.4 2.8 1.1
21 Marcus Sasser DET 4.9 1.4 2.1
22 Paul Reed DET 4.1 3.4 0.8
23 AJ Johnson WSH 3.7 1.3 1.5
24 Jaylen Martin WSH 3.5 1.4 0.5
25 Lindy Waters III DET 3.1 1.2 0.7
26 Anthony Gill WSH 2.3 1.1 0.5
27 Colby Jones WSH 2.3 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.