NBA games

NY @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
114–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
NY262229298114
POR212531297113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home POR
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 41 33 4 4
OG Anunoby S 43 23 7 3
Karl-Anthony Towns S 39 21 7 4
Miles McBride S 38 11 1 5
Josh Hart S 42 11 11 9
Landry Shamet 20 6 2 0
Cameron Payne 15 6 0 1
Mitchell Robinson 19 3 4 1
Precious Achiuwa 9 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scoot Henderson 37 30 3 2
Deni Avdija S 41 27 15 5
Shaedon Sharpe S 42 21 9 2
Toumani Camara S 34 14 3 4
Donovan Clingan S 34 6 12 1
Duop Reath 19 6 2 1
Anfernee Simons S 31 6 4 5
Kris Murray 15 3 2 0
Jabari Walker 11 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:04 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes 3-foot driving dunk (Josh Hart assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
12%
2 Josh Hart NY
10%
3 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
4 Deni Avdija POR
9%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
6 Anfernee Simons POR
8%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
8 Shaedon Sharpe POR
7%
9 Jerami Grant POR
7%
10 OG Anunoby NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
30%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anfernee Simons POR 23.7 3.4 4.6
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 21.3 5.5 3.9
3 Deni Avdija POR 20.0 7.5 5.0
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 18.2 10.4 2.0
5 OG Anunoby NY 18.0 4.6 3.0
6 Josh Hart NY 17.4 9.9 4.7
7 Deandre Ayton POR 16.7 10.0 2.1
8 Mikal Bridges NY 16.0 4.1 4.4
9 Scoot Henderson POR 16.0 3.4 4.8
10 Toumani Camara POR 12.8 5.9 2.9
11 Jerami Grant POR 12.8 4.2 2.2
12 Miles McBride NY 10.5 3.6 2.9
13 Precious Achiuwa NY 9.1 6.9 1.2
14 Donovan Clingan POR 8.4 8.6 1.9
15 Jabari Walker POR 8.3 5.2 1.1
16 Landry Shamet NY 5.6 1.5 0.7
17 Cameron Payne NY 5.3 1.6 2.3
18 Duop Reath POR 5.1 2.6 0.9
19 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.0 3.9 0.6
20 Dalano Banton POR 4.8 2.0 1.4
21 Robert Williams III POR 4.1 5.9 0.7
22 Kris Murray POR 3.8 2.4 0.7
23 MarJon Beauchamp NY 3.5 1.8 0.8
24 Delon Wright NY 3.3 1.7 1.6
25 Anton Watson NY 2.8 1.4 1.0
26 Tyler Kolek NY 2.5 1.1 0.7
27 Rayan Rupert POR 1.5 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.