NBA games

MIN @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
115–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN34233226115
DEN2622272095

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home DEN
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 35 29 4 6
Julius Randle S 28 25 4 3
Jaden McDaniels S 32 16 8 1
Rudy Gobert S 30 11 10 3
Donte DiVincenzo 25 10 6 6
Naz Reid 26 8 5 2
Mike Conley S 20 8 1 5
Luka Garza 5 5 2 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 16 3 3 4
Josh Minott 5 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 38 34 8 4
Russell Westbrook S 33 19 4 1
Jamal Murray S 35 12 5 8
Michael Porter Jr. S 33 10 9 2
Hunter Tyson 5 8 0 0
Christian Braun S 33 6 4 0
Jalen Pickett 17 3 2 2
PJ Hall 3 2 1 0
Trey Alexander 5 1 0 1
Zeke Nnaji 11 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mike Conley · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Mike Conley makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
2 Jaden McDaniels MIN
11%
3 Julius Randle MIN
11%
4 Christian Braun DEN
11%
5 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
7 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
8 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
9 Russell Westbrook DEN
8%
10 Mike Conley MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
43%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
20%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.4 11.1 9.7
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.8 6.7 5.8
3 Jamal Murray DEN 23.5 3.4 6.2
4 Julius Randle MIN 20.3 6.9 6.1
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 20.1 7.3 3.7
6 Naz Reid MIN 19.0 8.4 3.5
7 Christian Braun DEN 18.5 5.0 3.6
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 17.4 4.6 5.1
9 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.9 8.6 2.1
10 Rudy Gobert MIN 14.9 10.8 2.4
11 Russell Westbrook DEN 14.0 4.8 4.7
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 12.5 3.4 2.8
13 Mike Conley MIN 9.3 2.7 3.9
14 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 7.9 2.8 1.2
15 Peyton Watson DEN 6.4 3.2 1.4
16 Jalen Pickett DEN 5.9 1.7 1.7
17 Zeke Nnaji DEN 5.6 2.8 0.8
18 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.5 1.2 1.0
19 Dario Saric DEN 4.0 2.8 1.5
20 Luka Garza MIN 3.9 1.9 0.7
21 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.4 1.4 2.0
22 Vlatko Cancar DEN 3.4 1.7 1.0
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.5 1.4 0.6
24 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.5 4.4 0.5
25 Josh Minott MIN 2.1 1.3 0.5
26 Trey Alexander DEN 2.1 1.2 0.6
27 Joe Ingles MIN 2.0 0.8 1.1
28 Spencer Jones DEN 2.0 1.0 0.5
29 PJ Hall DEN 1.4 1.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.